I'm with you -- let's get back to earthquakes. The high melodrama, perceived injustices and blowing things out of proportion -- by one person -- are staggering beyond belief.

As for your analysis, I don't understand why you are only counting 9 cases in the 5-day window around the full or new moon. Why not 15 (9+5+1)? Why not 15/23 = 65% instead of 9/23 = 39%?

I am not a fan or proponent of Jim Berkland or his methods so I am not speaking in his defense, but why are you only counting the earthquakes that fall outside the 3-day window, but inside the 5-day window? If you are going to count that way, then you should adjust the chance of success formula to ((5-3)*16)/224 = 14%.

What am I missing, Roger?

Barbara