Marc;

> I am curious to the definition of the dataset required to make the prediction, or any prediction. Seven days and you get one hit, does that qualify as 6 misses? or misses until a hit, so if it hits on the last day, it's still 6 misses and one hit.

If you define a time window and a quake of the right size falls within it, that's a hit.

> How would you define the dataset. If I predict 1 and get 4, then what.

One hit. I count the success of the prediction, not the number of quakes.

> I have to admit that maybe I am making this harder than it seems.

No problem. What seems clear to me may not be clear to you and I need to know that.

> Perhaps you could "steer" me in the direction you are pointing, because without the right definition on the problem, things could get more complex than they need to be.

Keep asking questions until you fully understand.

> The simple solution is always the elegant solution.

Mathematicians sometimes have a strange idea of "simple".

Roger