Hi Glen. Lets say you make a prediction for an M=2.5 to M=4.0 at location X on a given date. You don’t get the quake, but you do get an increase in quake activity in the area and in your time window. All of the quakes are much smaller then your prediction, but do they tell you something? Can you learn something from those small quakes?

Could it be that the formula you used isn’t accurate enough, or that you made a slight calculation error? If you make a ½ of degree error at the starting point how large will that error be when you reach your predicted area? Take Care…Don in creepy town