Hi Glen. The word significant can mean many different things to many different people, but to my way of thinking it means, “Too closely correlated to be attributed to chance and therefore indicating a systematic relation.”

It could have been felt, but not reported, but could have also been felt, but no one was there to feel it so in that sense it doesn’t matter whether it was felt or not.

The last quake to have occurred in your radius was on 10/18/2005. Using the radius of 35Km, which is just a little more then the distance a quake occurred from your predicted location there have been only 7 quakes since 2002. That averages out to around 2 quakes per year.

If there are only 2 quakes per year that means you would have 12 days out of 365 to guess which 6-day period was going have a quake in your predicted area, or you have to pick which 6 day period out of 182 days the day the quake was going to occur. Of course quakes don’t follow the rules of chance, or averages. An area can go for more then a year without having a quake so that makes it even harder to guess at.

To my way of thinking it is hard enough trying to pick the location and time the next quake is going to occur without the added burden of whether it is significant or not, or is felt. Take Care…Don in creepy town

catalog=ANSS
start_time=2002/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2006/03/11,11:36:49
minimum_magnitude=3.5
maximum_magnitude=4.5
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 35 km from (33.995,-116.955)
Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002/10/22 07:15:26.07 34.3015 -116.8838 7.10 3.58 ML 104 0.17 CI 9852637
2004/02/25 22:23:01.92 33.8163 -117.0430 15.05 3.58 ML 110 0.23 CI 9986489
2004/12/12 05:05:52.87 34.1502 -116.9817 11.51 3.71 ML 142 0.19 CI 10066389
2005/06/16 20:54:19.95 34.0527 -117.0232 16.80 3.65 h 49 0.24 CI 12196991
2005/06/27 22:17:33.61 34.0542 -117.0305 12.13 3.96 ML 177 0.22 CI 14158696
2005/10/18 04:08:41.52 34.0142 -116.7753 16.71 4.05 ML 115 0.20 CI 10148369
2005/10/18 07:31:03.47 34.0122 -116.7755 18.58 4.37 ML 140 0.26 CI 10148421