This is an open question to anyone who may wish to comment. I'm currently researching the VAN case and though I have considerable data to collect I have question that has been running around in the back of my mind and I don't believe I'm going to find the answer in reading the case history. So I'm hoping with your comments I might have a better viewpoint in asking it.

In the various materials I have read, it seems that though the team members made 23 predictions, some of those were given credit for being valid. Max Wyss gives them credit for 10 of the 23. While that's not better than 50% of the time, it was only for a short period of I believe three years. Yet, they seemed to have come under some severe scutiny for their efforts.

When you make a case comparison, when looking at the Parkfield project, it has been over 15 years in waiting for one single earthquake and to date there are no positive results. While Parkfield continues to be highly funded and only critisized in a small way, I have a lack of understanding how one group has such difficulty and the other little or none.

If the members of VAN, Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nokimos had fifteen years and the funding that Parkfield has received, I have to wonder if they were given the same kind of support, is it possible they may have had truly amazing success?

Help me out here, what am I missing in looking at these two projects?

North of The City By The Bay...Petra Challus