Glen,

"Cheating" is a loaded word. I agree with Michael's answer completely. It is really unfortunate to use this word indiscriminately.

Glen to Michael: "If somebody predicts an earthquake during an aftershock sequence, and they do not mention the mainshock, that would be #3 on your list."

No it would not. Michael is talking about straitforward parameters. The information is available publicly to determine where the mainshocks are. As long as information is flowing freely, people can make assessments knowing about the mainshocks.

"If I make a prediction for a 1 mag at the Geysers, and 99% of an unknowing audience showers me with flowers, that would be cheating."

No, it would just show that your prediction was useless but many people, out of ignorance, did not think so.

"Where does science and grandstanding part ways?"

They don't. People who write papers attempt to mislead readers all the time. As a translator, I recognize these subterfuges immediately. It's a kind of face-saving cosmetics. Sweep the problem under the rug. Disguise it as a "little detail." But the savvy reader can always spot the problem. It is not really cheating.

"Cheating is taking credit for something that has already been scientifically proven, including hit rates."

No, Michael is right. Valid, useless predictions are not cheating. By using the word "cheating" in such a frivolous way, you make it more difficult to describe real deception, or fraud.

Unethical deception (to use a hypothetical example) would be to claim that one has a method for calculating EQ locations and magnitudes, when no such method exists in the first place, and a completely different method is being used to assign locations and magnitudes. Then when the "unknowing audience" earnestly asks questions, just make up fantasy-type answers, using odd-sounding English, to whet their appetites for an exotic new science alternative. Meanwhile set non-public terms and conditions for people who want to learn this method, and practice it around the world.

Does that sound familiar? (Hint: Jody is NOT cheating)