Todd,

The issue in August 1989 was after two 5.0 quakes they said they thought it might be possible a larger quake might happen. I forget what the time frame was exactly, but I know it expired before Loma Prieta. So they didn't issue a warning for a 5.0 then and I certainly don't think they would do it now.

While we think a 5.0 is something to be revered, they don't. Its a smaller moderate quake, no big deal. Besides, what would they use to predict it? Stainmeters? They didn't work worth a darn in Parkfield.

Honestly, we have to be clear on this. The USGS does not predict earthquakes. That doesn't mean a scientist someplace might be predict it, but don't expect the government to suddenly get into earthquake prediction. We're on our own. It's up to us to figure it out and no matter, we should be prepared. That's our best effort.

Today I heard a news clip with Jeb Bush in Florida addressing the issue of no electricity. The folks can't get gas as the pumps won't pump, so they can't go and collect what's being given away, like ice for instance. He said, "This time you're not going to blame FEMA or any other organization. I take the blame on this one and we told you, you had 72 hours to prepare and that's plenty of time. You should have expected the electricity to be out for some period of time."

Californian's should expect the same after a large earthquake. Perhaps in the earthquake kit one should include a supply of charcoal briquets or get more propane for the gas grill.

A 5.0 on the Hayward Fault will surely get everyone's attention, but hopefully it should not cause any loss of life, though injuries are certainly possible.

Petra