Hi Todd,

In October 1969 there were twin 5.6 earthquakes within a minute of each other on the Rodgers Creek Fault. A considerable amount of damage was done in Santa Rosa. The epicenter of those quakes sits right under Sutter Medical Center on Chanate Road. Within two miles also sits Kaiser Hospital and a host of schools too. It has already been said that the RCF has the greatest likelihood of having a 7.0 in the Bay Area and a 6.7 is expected "at any time" on the Hayward, Calavaras or Concord Faults. They really don't need to say anything else. As to the Hayward Fault not having any 5.0 quakes in the past 130 years, maybe Don can run a catalog check on that for us.

Having a 5.0 earthquake on any of these faults does not mean you are going to have a larger quake. I think there's only a 5% chance within 5 days after, if my memory serves me correctly.

Only one person correctly predicted the Loma Prieta earthquake and that was Jim Berkland. But no one in the USGS ever gives credit to Jim Berkland for predicting that earthquake. Even one of the most recent TV documentaries from KRON discusses earthquake prediction and no mention was made at all of this prediction and a spokesperson for the USGS, Ross Stein said they can't predict earthquakes. Maybe they can't? Personally, I would never expect them to do so other than in a long term probability sense.

Honestly, if there was a 4.0 to 5.5 quake near the Oakland/Berkeley foothills in the next month I would not be surprised in the least. Not that I expect one specifically, but its certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.

Petra