you missed my point
Posted by John Vidale on July 02, 2005 at 07:23:25:

or didn't want to hear it.

"I'm not sure you could live with something that arrives round, rather than square, but if the future of earthquake victims relies on round, then we should have round."

The "round" things are welcome, it is just that none of them work or even have much promise. Perhaps we just have different opinions of how likely ear tones, for example, are to be useful compared to more detailed but less exotic studies. Given the near-impossibility in theory of ear tones working, which you should acknowledge yourself, it requires demonstrable evidence before I'd get excited about their possibility. Maybe you can gather such evidence.

With limited resources, funding agencies and therefor scientists concentrate on the most likely possibilities. One possibility is also that prediction will never work in the short-term.

It is a perilous position to think one knows the solution but not be able to prove it. Scientists often are there, but they know the statistical tests to see whether they are right or not - usually they are not.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: you missed my point - not really - Petra  09:48:32 - 7/2/2005  (26781)  (2)
        ● makes sense - John Vidale  10:31:47 - 7/2/2005  (26783)  (0)
        ● If I may intrude - Roger Hunter  10:08:04 - 7/2/2005  (26782)  (2)
           ● Re: If I may intrude - Of Course - Petra  20:33:33 - 7/2/2005  (26791)  (0)
           ● OT: Roger, check my "Ask Jim" post - John Vidale  11:56:17 - 7/2/2005  (26786)  (1)
              ● Re: OT: Roger, check my "Ask Jim" post - Roger Hunter  12:17:12 - 7/2/2005  (26787)  (1)
                 ● then why didn't he deny it? - John Vidale  13:02:14 - 7/2/2005  (26788)  (2)
                    ● For the record, he denied it eventually - John Vidale  07:20:03 - 7/3/2005  (26794)  (1)
                       ● Re: For the record, he denied it eventually - Canie  20:31:44 - 7/5/2005  (26823)  (1)
                          ● intriguing stuff - John Vidale  09:25:49 - 7/7/2005  (26843)  (0)
                    ● Re: then why didn't he deny it? - Roger Hunter  13:29:14 - 7/2/2005  (26789)  (1)
                       ● Re: then why didn't he deny it? - Petra  14:35:44 - 7/2/2005  (26790)  (1)
                          ● I'd like to see Berklund's Loma Prieta prediction word- for word - chris in suburbia  14:27:55 - 7/6/2005  (26827)  (1)
                             ● So would I. - Roger Hunter  16:45:43 - 7/6/2005  (26831)  (0)