Hi all;

I've examined the archives for 2004 and found another prediction, making 7 in all.

Petra has added the missing information and I have reevaluated them, getting somewhat different results. This is because my guesses were not always what she had in mind and is a good example of why I want the predictor to specify all the parameters up front.

Final results for 2004 are that only 3 of the 7 were hits and one was a near miss. All but one of them were veryy low probability and since that one was a hit she has only 2 really good hits out of 7 predictions.

The odds on the 2 hits were small; 1/36 for one and 1/12 for the other. Not as good as I originally thought.

For 2005, I will capture the predictions as they are posted and no changes will be allowed.

Roger