Hi All. The following is by Wei Xinde, staff reporter of Chinese Science News, May 9, 1997.

“On April 3, Huang Xiangning (Associate Research Fellow of the Institute of Crustal Stress of the SSB), Prof. Li Junzhi (Earthquake Research Center, Beijing Polytechnic Institute), and Ren Zhenqiu (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science) jointly presented a short-term and imminent earthquake prediction report to the SSB. Their conclusion was that there would be an earthquake of magnitude 7 to 7.5 at 38.7N-40.2N, 75E-77E on April 7 (+/-3 days).”

“On April 3, the SSB Prediction Section and the Center of Analysis and Prediction forwarded the prediction reports to the Xinjiang Seismological Bureau.”

“At 7 p.m. on April 5, the Xinjiang Seismological Bureau convened an emergency meeting to discuss the imminent earthquake prediction reports and decide on a course of action. At 8 p.m. the Bureau recommended that the Jiashi County Government take immediate action and mobilize the general public to take earthquake protection measures. These precautionary measures greatly reduced human casualties and economic losses.”

“[ On April 6, 7:46 a.m. Beijing time, a magnitude 6.3 earthquake occurred; at 12:36 p.m. another quake of magnitude 6.4 hit the Jiashi County. Although more than 2000 houses collapsed, there was no loss of life and only 23 people were slightly injured.* ]”

“Profs. Li Junzhi, Ren Zhenqiu, and Huang Xiangning received a personal telephone call from the head of CAP after the earthquakes congratulating them on their "..pivotal role in this (successful) warning." The three experts, however, continued to warn that "there is still a high probability of an even greater earthquake because the seismic energy in the Jiashi area has not been fully released." Sure enough, on April 11 and 16, two more quakes (M6.6 and M6.4) followed. The total energy eventually released in this series of M>6 Jiashi quakes between April 6 and 16 was equivalent to a single M6.8 earthquake, close to the M7 earthquake predicted by the three experts. This particular prediction by the three experts is considered accurate on all three parameters: time, location and magnitude, a distinguished achievement in China and abroad. The Chinese scientists have begun to make some breakthroughs in the global problem of short-term and imminent quake prediction.”

“Profs. Li, Ren, and Huang summarize their methodology as one that integrates internal and external causes. Although there are now as many as over a hundred methods in earthquake prediction, none of them, in the minds of practically all quake experts, is reliable by itself.”

As one can see the article points out that there were a number of quakes in the area that drew the attention of the seismologists. Since that time other quakes have occurred in China in which no warning was given, or if there was none have been publicized.

The most recent quake in California (San Simeon) had a main event of M>6.5 with no quake larger then that. There was nothing to indicate that there was going to be an M>6.5 quake in that area. The closest location of stress data is in Parkfield, but nothing was seen there before the quake. An increase in shear (about 1mm) was seen after the quake. Would strain have been seen if the quake was larger, or if the crustal deformation sites been located closer to San Simeon?

China has proven some quakes can be predicted with a high degree of success, but not all quakes. By the way, the 220Km range would not be acceptable in Japan. This is due to the density of the population and the cost of false alarms. Take Care…Don in creepy town

• Earthquake Prediction In China