Earthquake forecasting advance and the Papua New Guinea earthquake
Posted by EQF on September 12, 2002 at 13:12:27:

EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING ADVANCE

At the moment I am not certain about what I am observing here. But I feel that it is potentially important enough that it should be discussed at this time. These are my personal opinions.

The earthquake warning type signals which I am working with appear to be various types of electromagnetic energy field fluctuations.

Before some earthquakes a group of signals may be detected during perhaps a 6 hour period of time. And I have been trying to determine for years how those signals are being generated. Are they coming from a single fault zone or more than one?

Now that I am using more advanced computer programs to analyze my precursor data I am observing what appears to be the following (this is a simplified picture):

One earthquake will occur. Then a group of warning signals will be detected. And perhaps 6 hours to several days after the first earthquake a second one will occur. The first signal looks like it is linked with that first earthquake. And the last one is linked with the second earthquake. It is as if the first earthquake knocked over the first Domino in a line. And when each Domino in the line fell it was followed by another.

There at least two significant pieces of information here:

1. That process may make it easier for me (and perhaps other forecasters) to tell where expected earthquakes are going to occur.

2. It might be suggesting that something is possible which I have been hoping for some time could be done. It could be that with an advanced forecasting program based on that process, earthquakes themselves might be used as precursors which would suggest where the next earthquake in the line could be about to occur.

THE SEPTEMBER 8, 2002 PAPUA NEW GUINEA EARTHQUAKE

On a fairly regular basis now I am detecting the approach of earthquakes and then sending fairly accurate warnings or advisories to the governments of countries where I expect one may be about to occur.

On September 8, 2002 the following powerful earthquake occurred:

2002/09/08 18:44:26 3.23S 142.87E 33.0 7.5
NEAR N COAST NEW GUINEA, PNG. (NEIS data)

On August 13, 2002 I sent an earthquake advisory to government officials in Papua New Guinea recommending that they watch for important seismic activity which I thought might soon take place around 146E and 6S. On August 11 I also checked with another forecasters to see if he thought that there could be some approaching activity for that area.

Forecasting efforts have now in my opinion reached the point where for some earthquakes at least, after being sent advisories or warnings like that one, government officials might only need to periodically check for reports of fresh cracks in building foundations etc. in some area. Things like that might then serve as indicators that some expected earthquake could be about to occur.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake forecasting advance and the Papua New Guinea earthquake - Petra Challus  21:23:38 - 9/13/2002  (16695)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake forecasting advance and the Papua New Guinea earthquake - Don In Hollister  22:57:06 - 9/13/2002  (16697)  (1)
           ● Re: Earthquake forecasting advance and the Papua New Guinea earthquake - EQF  11:14:54 - 9/14/2002  (16708)  (0)
     ● Advance? Where are the stats? - 2cents  10:03:23 - 9/13/2002  (16689)  (1)
        ● Re: Advance? Where are the stats? - EQF  14:42:49 - 9/13/2002  (16692)  (1)
           ● Re: Advance? Where are the stats? - 2cents  09:17:00 - 9/14/2002  (16704)  (1)
              ● Re: Advance? Where are the stats? - EQF  12:21:19 - 9/14/2002  (16709)  (1)
                 ● Re: Advance? Where are the stats? - 2cents  03:41:40 - 9/16/2002  (16714)  (1)
                    ● Re: Advance? Where are the stats? - EQF  12:40:19 - 9/16/2002  (16716)  (0)