EQF:

Again, I applaud your efforts in trying to solve this pesky little problem about earthquakes.

Again though, IMHO, your making a claim of an "advance" without presenting a statistical analysis of "predicted" quakes won't buy you too much these days.

Another question is "What is your false alarm rate?" How many times did you send a warning for this area and no quake happened?

These types of information being lacking tends to crimp your credibility (as discussed previously ...see link).

Have you thought about finding out how well you are doing statistically or will you continue to just issue posts after the fact?

I think we all do things for a reason and perhaps you know why you pursue things the way you do. I think other observers of you also get a feeling for what your goals are as well....

Maybe the "signal" you got for PNG was "real" but without the proper follow up no one (including yourself) will never know.... Also, quakes happen frequently around PNG so without specifying a magnitude range and tighter location your warning was probably close to useless.

However...you have the power to change that. Only you know if you ever will.

Just my $.025 cents worth...(inflation u know :)

• (Previous discussion on credibility/proof)