This subject matter is so tremendously complex that I am afraid that your questions cannot be answered fully. What I will try to do is provide some information which may be helpful. These are personal opinions.

As a type of serious hobby I work on projects which are designed to save lives. Ideally this involves generating some type of technical information regarding how to solve some life threatening problem and then giving that information to people, government agencies etc. which can make use of it. And with some 20,000 to 50,000 people dying of hunger and disease each day it is really not very difficult for someone with the right type of technical background to develop plans for saving some of them. I have had quite a bit of success in the past with projects not related to earthquake forecasting. But instead of writing a book about some effort when it is finished I usually simply move on to the next one.

Two which are presently waiting for me to get some time free involve developing technology which I feel might enable us to inexpensively produce three dimensional maps of our heart blood vessels. Pictures like that could then alert people to the fact that a major artery was 90% blocked – time for action. Present imaging technology costs too much for general use. Another project involves developing procedures for preventing and curing certain types of cancer.

One of the key steps with these types of efforts is determining why other people’s past efforts to solve some life threatening problem failed. And that is why I used the word “Ideally” in an earlier paragraph. What you discover quite often is that a lack of the necessary life saving technology is not the reason the problem has not been solved. Most often it has something to do with government politics at some level. Either some influential special interest group is opposed to a particular life saving effort because it would affect their ability to make a profit on something or there is simply no special interest group around to push the effort forward. With regard to earthquakes, there are elections being held up and down the U.S. West Coast in just a few weeks. And as most people are probably aware, a powerful earthquake could flatten any number of cities along the coast.

So, can you recall hearing of even one person living on the West Coast asking someone running for office what he or she planned to do to get earthquake forecasting technology developed? No interest – no activity.

A major limiting factor regarding the accuracy of my forecasts at this point is the amount of time that I can spend to evaluate my data. I use different data filtering processes to identify likely times and locations for an earthquake. It is a complex process which usually takes quite a while. If I believe that a really destructive earthquake might be about to occur I will try to find the necessary time to develop an accurate forecast. Otherwise I may simply circulate an advisory which recommends that people watch for reports of earthquake activity in some area so that they can respond quickly if necessary.

The most important thing to do at this point is to locate people and groups which are actually interested in seeing destructive earthquakes get predicted. And the next step then involves getting them moving in at least some direction. For example, in my other recent note posted here and in recent Newsgroup notices I pointed people to Shan’s forecasting Web site. If it can be shown that his sun shadow based procedure works then it might be ideal for widespread use in developing nations. My own forecasting procedure would not be.

Regarding the accuracy of my own forecasts, I will make a guess that in connection with perhaps 1 in 3 of the advisories or warnings which I am presently circulating there is an earthquake which produces fatalities. With a higher percentage the earthquake may simply shake some buildings and frighten people.

Regarding discussions of this technology at this Web site, as I have said in the past, no one else that I can find anywhere is working on the same type of sun and moon gravity based approach to forecasting. And so it does not do any good to ask people for help here regarding much of this work. No one would have any answers. I have been getting good responses to my questions regarding computer programs. That is an area where quite a few people around the world have some expertise. And as expected, they are often willing to help when possible.