Tax day contest - preliminary
Posted by Roger Hunter on April 16, 2002 at 15:16:45:

Hi all;

Here are the preliminary results of the tax day contest.

Since not all the quakes are in yet, there is no winner at this
moment, but it looks like Carol has it, barring new developments
or quakes not in the CNSS catalog.


1 Carol
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 37.8 -122.6 2.5 9.9 50 Prob.4.10%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
DATE TIME LAT LON MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/04/14 11:36:57.33 37.5982 -122.4497 26.0 62.8%
2002/04/14 17:19:00.94 37.5495 -118.8008 2.68 335.2 94.4%
2002/04/14 23:01:40.68 38.8035 -122.7853 2.74 112.7 40.2%
2002/04/15 22:57:00.89 38.8450 -122.8105 3.41 117.5 46.1%
2002/04/16 10:15:31.44 37.0263 -117.9660 2.91 417.8 98.5%


There are no perfect fits for this prediction.


Best date 2002/04/15 22:57:00.89 38.8450 -122.8105 3.41 .50
Best dist 2002/04/14 11:36:57.33 37.5982 -122.4497 26.02
Best size 2002/04/15 22:57:00.89 38.8450 -122.8105 3.41 3.41
Best prob 2002/04/14 23:01:40.68 38.8035 -122.7853 2.74 40.230%


2 Carol
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 33.26 -116.35 2.5 9.9 50 Prob.19.5%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
DATE TIME LAT LON MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/04/14 17:19:00.94 37.5495 -118.8008 2.68 525.6 99.1%
2002/04/16 10:15:31.44 37.0263 -117.9660 2.91 443.4 98.0%


There are no perfect fits for this prediction.


Best date 2002/04/16 10:15:31.44 37.0263 -117.9660 2.91 .50
Best dist 2002/04/16 10:15:31.44 37.0263 -117.9660 2.91 443.42
Best size 2002/04/16 10:15:31.44 37.0263 -117.9660 2.91 2.91
Best prob 2002/04/16 10:15:31.44 37.0263 -117.9660 2.91 98.030%


3 Cathryn
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 33.666 -95.54762 3 60 Prob.0%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.


4 Petra Challus
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 37.69 -91.8 1.2 2.2 166.7 Prob. .164%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.


5 Petra Challus
2002/4 /14 - 2002/4 /16 33.4 -94.2 1.2 2.2 166.7 Prob. 0%


The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.


Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Don's New Zealand forecast - events - lowell  21:22:29 - 4/17/2002  (14973)  (0)
     ● Re: Tax day contest - preliminary - lowell  15:25:49 - 4/16/2002  (14940)  (1)
        ● Re: Tax day contest - preliminary - Roger Hunter  16:19:08 - 4/16/2002  (14941)  (1)
           ● Re: Tax day contest - preliminary Watching & Waiting - Petra Challus  18:35:24 - 4/16/2002  (14944)  (1)
              ● Roger - Cathryn  22:38:15 - 4/16/2002  (14954)  (1)
                 ● Cathryn - Roger Hunter  04:53:57 - 4/17/2002  (14957)  (0)