Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5
Posted by 2cents on April 01, 2002 at 23:12:09:

For scientists to look at this seriously would require the inclusion of ringmap eq statistics (a first order cut at doing this was mentioned above using 3 x 3 degree boxes over the globe).

Without the "evidence" showing that the particular ringmap ranges do indeed indicate statistically significant (above background seismicity) results then this activity might fall into the "illusion" category (as has been discussed before on this forum).

I assumed that whatever paper was in the works would have included such "hard core" scientific evidence. If the paper's release is being stalled, it may well be that the statistics are not compelling enough to "make the sale"....

Many a fine scientist has been "bitten in the a*s" by not sampling enough data.

Don't get me wrong, I totally encourage anybody's efforts to pursue this goal. I just thought I would add my 2 cents worth of perspective with regard to whether this forum is on the same path as a "scientific paper". Clearly without the associated ringmap statistics per eq., this pursuit falls short of "proving" anything...though the results appear encouraging.

Keep in mind that many people are still using planetary (more than moon/sun) alignments (and such) to predict earthquakes since the illusion appears to very compelling...however the scientific approach has shown that this avenue, though compelling at times...is merely an illusion (however, there may be some special cases where the positions may effect solar activity which in turn then effects geomagnetism, etc.).

Bottom line, no ringmap stats...then this is not a scientific study (though it could turn into one with a tad more effort).

Just my .02 worth of ranting....


Follow Ups:
     ● ring probabilities - Roger Hunter  18:10:05 - 4/2/2002  (14525)  (1)
        ● Re: ring probabilities - 2cents  19:51:26 - 4/2/2002  (14528)  (1)
           ● Re: ring probabilities - Roger Hunter  20:02:16 - 4/2/2002  (14530)  (1)
              ● .02 - question - Roger Hunter  13:25:09 - 4/3/2002  (14555)  (1)
                 ● Re: .02 - question - 2cents  20:33:38 - 4/4/2002  (14624)  (1)
                    ● Re: .02 - question - Roger Hunter  06:04:40 - 4/5/2002  (14636)  (0)
     ● Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5  - Lowell  01:36:09 - 4/2/2002  (14491)  (1)
        ● Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5  - Canie  07:07:50 - 4/2/2002  (14496)  (0)
     ● Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5  - Lowell  01:24:51 - 4/2/2002  (14490)  (1)
        ● Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5  - 2cents  08:32:47 - 4/2/2002  (14497)  (1)
           ● Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5  - Lowell  08:54:57 - 4/2/2002  (14500)  (1)
              ● Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5  - 2cents  14:43:32 - 4/2/2002  (14515)  (0)