Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5
Posted by Lowell on April 02, 2002 at 08:54:57:

2 Cents
I think that caution is called for in this case. Publishing of a few predictions by
USGS scientists (which are almost 100% probable) does not justify producing
a theoretical technique which is still under development. Drugs are not put on the
market until there have been years of tests, tests and more tests even if the statistics
are highly convincing. The history of one failed attempt after another in earthquake
prediction make most scientists very wary of producing anything at all. Ostracism
and ridicule are often the result of doing so. When it is a promising career on the
line or a promising scientific development erring on the side of caution is often
the best approach.
I do not know the progress of publishing on this topic, however, I do know that
papers can take years to get into publication after first being submitted, especially
if hostile referees are asked to be reviewers. The human frailities that plagued
the development of such concepts as sunspots or continental drift have not
disappeared with the modern age.
The people who are involved in this are very much aware of the developments
and progress which are being made on this in this forum. Who knows, it might
spur them to get the paper published. Let us hope so. If not, then perhaps we will
see a first in web history - that a forum such as this would develop a useful
scientific concept to its full potential.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Far-Field Aftershock forecast from north-central Chile Mw 6.5  - 2cents  14:43:32 - 4/2/2002  (14515)  (0)