This one oughta be close:

CNSS is reporting the following earthquake via BRK this evening:

27MAR2002 03:52:45 40.4N 127.0W Ml = 4.63 Off the Coast of Northern California

Two predictions for that area are currently in effect - one from Don and one from Petra

Don's was:
24MAR2002 +/-2 day 42.3N 129.9W Ml 4.0-5.0 Off the Coast of Oregon Within 35 km

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/13950.html

Petra's was:
23-29MAR2002 40.3N 123.8W Ml 3.4-4.4 Near Cape Menocino, California. Within 40 km

http://www.earthwaves.org/wwwboard/messages/14018.html

Both of these call for a relatively large regional quake in this area at this time. But neither
Is within the location limits set.

Roger: Could you check the probabilities of these two forecasts against the occurrence of
Tonight's earthquake. On the face of it, it looks like about a tie. Besides wasn't that the
Earthquake you were going to have evaluated on the other board???

Don's Original forecast:

Brookings, Oregon Earthquake Forecast (4.0-5.0)
Posted by Don In Hollister on March 20, 2002 at 10:48:29:

Magnitude: 4.0-5.0Ml
From: 03/22/2002UTC - To: 03/26/2002UTC
Location: Brookings, Oregon
Lat: 42.3N - Long: 129.9W - Range: 35Km

Hi All. I'm back in the States now. I had to replenish my supply of raw onions and garlic. Will also have to get some
more Corona Beer.

Looking for a 4.0 to 5.0 quake at 42.3N/129.9W. This is about 450Km west of Brookings, Oregon.

Should occur on 03/24/2002. The window will open on 03/22/2002 and will close on 03/26/2002.

The radius for this will be 35Km. Take Care…Don in creepy townMagnitude: 3.4 - 4.4

Petra's Original Forecast:

From: 03/23/02 UTC - To: 03/29/02 UTC
Location: Cape Mendocino
Lat: 40.28N - Long: 123.80W - Range: 40km

Hi All,

I got so enthused about the contest, I thought I'd hop out there and see what I could do outside of that window.
Confidence is high.

Petra

CNSS catalog listing
ftp://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/pub/catalogs/cnss/2002/2002.03.cnss

• CNSS catalog listing