Hi Roger. You sure like simple questions don’t you?

Looking at it from my point of view the magnitude of the quake is my biggest problem. However if I were to see the possibility of a major quake at location X and I miss the time by 10 days then that miss would be the main problem. The same thing applies to the location. I could be off by a 100 miles. My forecast sure wouldn’t do the people in the area it center at any good and a lot of people at the location that I forecasted for would also be a tad bit upset. Particularly if they went to the area that the quake centered at.

A good case in point is the most recent quake in the Philippines. I had the right location, but the specific location was to far off to have been of much use and I miss the magnitude by a wide margin. The only saving grace there is that the quake occurred where it did.

My feeling is that when it comes to quakes 6.0 and larger there isn’t much room for leeway. The only one that could be a saving grace is the timing. If it occurs late then there is still time to prepare. However if it occurs early then those who were waiting for the last moment to prepare just ran out of time. I feel that with large quake all 3 factors have an equal value. It becomes even more valuable when it’s the one that is missed. Take Care…Don in creepy town