Michael;

Opinion doesn't matter.

"Best fit" is the closest quake to the predicted value, taken independently.

Opinion may come into play on the probability. How do we get that on a near-miss? Not the exact value to be sure. If the prediction is a 65km circle and the best fit is 74km, what radius should be used for the probability? 74Km? But 74km was not predicted.

Tricky, eh? JOB uses a bullseye and 3 outer rings, each 10% larger for distance. Similar for mag and time. This leads to 64 possible combinations! Messy.

Roger