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Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. |
Shan did get the date of the March 2005 M8 plus quake but missed by a few degrees on location: it was south of equator and Shan predicted north. I think a M8+ is more likely south of equator, for example, Mentawai (spelling/), in general region of Padang. But the M8.6 and 8.2 Indian ocean strike-slip quakes in past year were, I recall, north of equator, but not part of subduction zone. After the close but missed prediction for March 2005, I recall that Shan then had a whole series of predictions for M8+ quakes and they all missed. Probably I recall between 6 and 10 of these. A talk at AGU a few years ago by Kerry Sieh explained how only part of the subduction zone offshore Sumatra south of equator (0-6 deg south) was broken by M8 quakes starting with March 2005. That is why I suggest that area. But I have no ability to predict quakes and have no reason to think there will be a maor or great quake in that region this month, or this year. Chris Follow Ups: ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan 12:37:32 - 1/15/2013 (100087) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 12:44:29 - 1/15/2013 (100088) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan 18:31:26 - 1/15/2013 (100090) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 18:38:30 - 1/15/2013 (100092) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan 21:22:49 - 1/15/2013 (100093) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 22:17:32 - 1/15/2013 (100094) (2) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan 04:06:12 - 1/16/2013 (100097) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 10:26:47 - 1/16/2013 (100100) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan 11:37:05 - 1/16/2013 (100102) (0) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Skywise 23:16:05 - 1/15/2013 (100095) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 10:22:01 - 1/16/2013 (100099) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - AMIT 11:25:07 - 1/16/2013 (100101) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 12:11:52 - 1/16/2013 (100103) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit 20:16:33 - 1/16/2013 (100107) (2) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Skywise 20:53:46 - 1/16/2013 (100109) (0) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 20:28:32 - 1/16/2013 (100108) (2) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit 22:29:41 - 1/16/2013 (100112) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 23:22:45 - 1/16/2013 (100113) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit 19:48:44 - 1/17/2013 (100116) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 20:03:07 - 1/17/2013 (100118) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit 08:55:42 - 1/18/2013 (100120) (2) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 09:41:47 - 1/18/2013 (100122) (0) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 09:26:21 - 1/18/2013 (100121) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit 10:42:33 - 1/18/2013 (100123) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 12:28:22 - 1/18/2013 (100124) (2) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit 13:06:55 - 1/18/2013 (100126) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 13:50:13 - 1/18/2013 (100127) (0) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit 12:56:32 - 1/18/2013 (100125) (0) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter 21:14:43 - 1/16/2013 (100110) (1) ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Skywise 22:22:49 - 1/16/2013 (100111) (0) |
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