Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect..
Posted by Island Chris on January 14, 2013 at 11:05:33:

Shan did get the date of the March 2005 M8 plus quake but missed by a few degrees on location: it was south of equator and Shan predicted north. I think a M8+ is more likely south of equator, for example, Mentawai (spelling/), in general region of Padang. But the M8.6 and 8.2 Indian ocean strike-slip quakes in past year were, I recall, north of equator, but not part of subduction zone.

After the close but missed prediction for March 2005, I recall that Shan then had a whole series of predictions for M8+ quakes and they all missed. Probably I recall between 6 and 10 of these.

A talk at AGU a few years ago by Kerry Sieh explained how only part of the subduction zone offshore Sumatra south of equator (0-6 deg south) was broken by M8 quakes starting with March 2005. That is why I suggest that area. But I have no ability to predict quakes and have no reason to think there will be a maor or great quake in that region this month, or this year.

Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan  12:37:32 - 1/15/2013  (100087)  (1)
        ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  12:44:29 - 1/15/2013  (100088)  (1)
           ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan  18:31:26 - 1/15/2013  (100090)  (1)
              ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  18:38:30 - 1/15/2013  (100092)  (1)
                 ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan  21:22:49 - 1/15/2013  (100093)  (1)
                    ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  22:17:32 - 1/15/2013  (100094)  (2)
                       ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan  04:06:12 - 1/16/2013  (100097)  (1)
                          ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  10:26:47 - 1/16/2013  (100100)  (1)
                             ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Shan  11:37:05 - 1/16/2013  (100102)  (0)
                       ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Skywise  23:16:05 - 1/15/2013  (100095)  (1)
                          ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  10:22:01 - 1/16/2013  (100099)  (1)
                             ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - AMIT  11:25:07 - 1/16/2013  (100101)  (1)
                                ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  12:11:52 - 1/16/2013  (100103)  (1)
                                   ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  20:16:33 - 1/16/2013  (100107)  (2)
                                      ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Skywise  20:53:46 - 1/16/2013  (100109)  (0)
                                      ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  20:28:32 - 1/16/2013  (100108)  (2)
                                         ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  22:29:41 - 1/16/2013  (100112)  (1)
                                            ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  23:22:45 - 1/16/2013  (100113)  (1)
                                               ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  19:48:44 - 1/17/2013  (100116)  (1)
                                                  ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  20:03:07 - 1/17/2013  (100118)  (1)
                                                     ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  08:55:42 - 1/18/2013  (100120)  (2)
                                                        ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  09:41:47 - 1/18/2013  (100122)  (0)
                                                        ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  09:26:21 - 1/18/2013  (100121)  (1)
                                                           ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  10:42:33 - 1/18/2013  (100123)  (1)
                                                              ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  12:28:22 - 1/18/2013  (100124)  (2)
                                                                 ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  13:06:55 - 1/18/2013  (100126)  (1)
                                                                    ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  13:50:13 - 1/18/2013  (100127)  (0)
                                                                 ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  12:56:32 - 1/18/2013  (100125)  (0)
                                         ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  21:14:43 - 1/16/2013  (100110)  (1)
                                            ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Skywise  22:22:49 - 1/16/2013  (100111)  (0)