Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect..
Posted by Roger Hunter on January 16, 2013 at 20:28:32:

Amit;

That's just wrong.

Chance depends on window size and mag range. Since these are different for each prediction, chances of success are different too.

If you want a test, make 10 predictions with identical mag and date ranges and see how you do. I'll do the same with random number generators and we'll compare results.

Future dates remember. No fair picking known quake dates!

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  22:29:41 - 1/16/2013  (100112)  (1)
        ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  23:22:45 - 1/16/2013  (100113)  (1)
           ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  19:48:44 - 1/17/2013  (100116)  (1)
              ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  20:03:07 - 1/17/2013  (100118)  (1)
                 ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  08:55:42 - 1/18/2013  (100120)  (2)
                    ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  09:41:47 - 1/18/2013  (100122)  (0)
                    ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  09:26:21 - 1/18/2013  (100121)  (1)
                       ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  10:42:33 - 1/18/2013  (100123)  (1)
                          ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  12:28:22 - 1/18/2013  (100124)  (2)
                             ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  13:06:55 - 1/18/2013  (100126)  (1)
                                ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  13:50:13 - 1/18/2013  (100127)  (0)
                             ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Amit  12:56:32 - 1/18/2013  (100125)  (0)
     ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Roger Hunter  21:14:43 - 1/16/2013  (100110)  (1)
        ● Re: Northern Sumatra 8M suspect.. - Skywise  22:22:49 - 1/16/2013  (100111)  (0)