Hey Don, you missed it by a day - what's wrong - not enough Corona
beer on hand?

Here is the evaluation of Don's Indian Springs California forecast
which was posted on 17 September, 2001 (#9495 below)

Don had expected an earthquake within 40 km of Indian Springs, CA
with Ml 2.5-4.0 between 19 September and 25 September.

First the chances of a correct prediction by random chance.
The NEIS catalog gives all events in this region with Ml 2.5 or
greater, so we use that catalog. They have 3 events in this magnitude
range within 40 km of Don's predicted epicenter since July, 2000.
So, in the past 400+ days there have been 3 days in which an earthquake
of this size has occurred or about 1 every 135 days for a daily
probability of about 0.007. In a standard 7-day period (Don's
forecast ran 7 days) the probability of random success would be
0.05 or about 1 chance in 20. In an 8-day period the chance of
random success would be about 0.056 or about 1 chance in 18. So
the odds were stacked against Don on this one.

An earthquake occurred this evening at the following epicenter (SCSN):

26SEP2001 18:49:07 34.117N 118.104W ML=2.8 SCSN ENE of San Marino, CA
Don's Forecast had been
19-25SEPT +/-40 km 34.3 N 118.2 W Ml 2.5-4.0 Indian Springs CA

The epicenter is 22 km from Don's predicted location, within the
magnitude range, and since the forecast had specifically stated
that the event magnitude would be dependent on the occurrence of
a geomagnetic storm which occurred yesterday, the one day error in
time can probably be forgiven. I wish I could do as well. Good job,
Don another A- on this one.

You might want to look at the other post on this event regarding
similar events in the last two years in the area.

Don's complete forecast had read:

"Indian Springs, California Earthquake Forecast
Posted by Don In Hollister on September 17, 2001 at 13:06:09:

Magnitude: 2.5-4.0+
From: 09/19/2001PDT - To: 09/25/2001
Location: Indian Springs, California
Lat: 34.3N - Long: 118.2W - Range: 40Km

Hi All. No raw onion, or garlic sandwich. Not even a Corona Beer. Looks like
there is a good chance for a 2.5-4.0Ml+ at 34.3N/118.2W. This is about 16Km
ESE of Indian Springs, or 24Km east of San Fernando. Should occur on 09/22/2001.

However if there is a geomagnetic storm one or two days before the forecasted
date the magnitude could be higher, or the quake could occur early.

There is a chance of another quake 12Km (34.4/118.2) north of there on
09/21/2001. Not sure as to how these two quakes will affect one another as
they are on different faults. A geomagnetic storm will also have the same
affect on this quake."

P.S. There has been a lot of activity in this general vicinity
in the past week. Earthquakes at Beverly Hills, Hawthorne, West
Hollywood etc. have all occurred with Ml<2. There was also an
event very close to the second epicenter Don mentioned at
34.4N 118.2W. That occurred on Sept. 25 at:

ML 1.2 2001/09/25 16:00:00 34.5N 118.2W WSW of Palmdale, CA

Both quakes seem to be a bit later than expected, maybe Don
should adjust his dates accordingly - or maybe both were dependent
as he stated on the geomagnetic storm occurring first.

• Earthquakes in California