The link is very interesting, saying there is a 70% chance of a M7+ quake in the Tokyo-Yokahama region on the next 4 years. I'm curious what John has to say, but my take is that this is based on some model, that they are assuming work, but they probably don't really have enough information to know how well it works. So, I'd guess that they over-estimate the odds.

I'm also curious about the difference between a "Tokai" M8, which the article says has not occurred in since 1854, vs. the type of quake that killed 100,000 in 1923.

Chris

• Tokyo quake odds