Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread
Posted by Roger Hunter on August 18, 2010 at 12:18:08:

EQF

> What you are doing is using probability equations to evaluate earthquake predictions that people are making.

Yes.

> However, the locations that I am generating are themselves being generated using probability equations. So, if you try to evaluate them you are using probability equations to evaluate probability equations. And that is not the direction in which this type of effort should be moving.

It's still the best way to compare your predictions to the quakes. It doesn't matter how you are making the predictions.

> The direction that things should move is to look at the original probability equations and try to improve them. And that should be possible with my next few program updates. The factors in the equations can be changed. And determinations can be made to see if the locations for the expected earthquakes got more or less accurate.

Which is what I do when evaluating. You should be revising the program, comparing with past quakes, revising again, etc until it works.

THEN you try to get others to use it. You've been doing it backward for years.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - EQF  14:33:21 - 8/18/2010  (77502)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - Roger Hunter  19:15:43 - 8/18/2010  (77503)  (1)
           ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - EQF  09:13:58 - 8/19/2010  (77504)  (1)
              ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - Roger Hunter  09:27:53 - 8/19/2010  (77505)  (1)
                 ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - EQF  12:02:35 - 8/19/2010  (77508)  (1)
                    ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - Roger Hunter  14:22:28 - 8/19/2010  (77513)  (1)
                       ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - EQF  20:34:14 - 8/21/2010  (77520)  (2)
                          ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - Skywise  09:23:39 - 8/22/2010  (77523)  (1)
                             ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - EQF  13:15:51 - 8/23/2010  (77529)  (0)
                          ● Re: Earthquake Warning August 16, 2010 - Please Post Any Responses, To This Part Of The Thread - Roger Hunter  22:30:18 - 8/21/2010  (77522)  (0)