Roger
All evelation problems comes when you average out 6+ quakes over a year. ( say roughly 150),which actualy occurs in clusters.
For your satisfaction I would like to go one step further
As per USGS there are on an average 16 quakes of 7+ per annum.
From May 15th to 31st December 2010 there will be 230 days left and hence about 10 quakes of 7+ are expected(as per USGS)
Now for these 10 quakes ,if you can tell me how many days predicted,how many hits (as well as misses)those are required to be qualified as per your evelalution to be above random dates or out of the hat dates?
16 quakes per year is roughly 4.5% say 5.0%.so for 10 quakes I need to give 200 dates out of 230 left to get 10 hits.
plese give
1)no of dtes to be predicted
2)no of hits required
3)no of misses allowed
till 31 st December 2010 for your eveluation of 7+ quakes
regrads
Amit