Re: big aftershocks
Posted by Amit Dave on May 12, 2010 at 03:27:59:

Roge
Here is your own evaluation for this year mailed to me. It says more than one date hits.Where as here you say only one date hit. Can you please explain the difference? Which one is corect?
regards
Amit

Amit

Here's how you are doing so far based on the NEIC catalog
(which is not up to date)

I lookes at all 6+ quakes and scored for a 3 day window
Centered on the predicted date. Mag was ignored or otherwise
You would have no hits

QUAKE PREDICTION
DATE TIME LAT. LON. MAG DATE TIME MAG
2010/ 1/ 1
2010/ 1/ 2 8:45:32.05 12.42 141.96 6.1
2010/ 1/ 3 22:36:27.96 -8.80 157.35 7.1
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/ 4
2010/ 1/ 5 13:11:42.82 -9.05 157.89 6.0
2010/ 1/ 6
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/ 7
2010/ 1/ 8
2010/ 1/ 9 5:51:30.47 -9.13 157.63 6.2
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/10
2010/ 1/11
2010/ 1/12 22: 0:41.49 18.39 -72.78 6.0
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/13
2010/ 1/14
2010/ 1/15 2010/ 1/15 8:30 6.7
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/16
2010/ 1/17 12: 0: 1.08 -57.66 -65.88 6.3
2010/ 1/18 2010/ 1/18 7:30 6.6 DATE HIT
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/19
2010/ 1/20
2010/ 1/21
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/22
2010/ 1/23
2010/ 1/24
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/25
2010/ 1/26
2010/ 1/27
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/28
2010/ 1/29
2010/ 1/30 2010/ 1/30 8: 0 6.5
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 1/31
2010/ 2/ 1 22:28:16.92 -6.11 154.46 6.2
2010/ 2/ 2
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/ 3
2010/ 2/ 4
2010/ 2/ 5 6:59: 5.64 -47.90 99.66 6.2
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/ 6 4:44:58.40 46.84 152.73 6.0
2010/ 2/ 7 6:10: .23 23.49 123.61 6.3
2010/ 2/ 8
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/ 9 1: 3:44.44 -15.05 -173.49 6.0
2010/ 2/10
2010/ 2/11
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/12
2010/ 2/13 2:34:28.85 -21.90 -174.78 6.1
2010/ 2/14
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/15 21:51:47.84 -7.22 128.76 6.2 2010/ 2/15 2: 0 6.6 DATE HIT
2010/ 2/16
2010/ 2/17
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/18 1:13:19.51 42.59 130.70 6.9
2010/ 2/19
2010/ 2/20
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/21
2010/ 2/22 7: 0:52.91 -23.64 -176.04 6.0
2010/ 2/23
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/24
2010/ 2/25
2010/ 2/26 20:31:26.54 25.93 128.43 7.0
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 2/27 19: 0: 6.86 -33.42 -71.83 6.3
2010/ 2/28 11:25:35.92 -34.90 -71.62 6.2 2010/ 2/28 13:30 6.8 DATE HIT
2010/ 3/ 1
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/ 2
2010/ 3/ 3 17:44:25.04 -36.61 -73.36 6.1
2010/ 3/ 4 22:39:26.56 -22.21 -68.30 6.4
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/ 5 16: 6:58.81 -3.77 100.96 6.8
2010/ 3/ 6
2010/ 3/ 7 7: 5:23.29 -16.24 -115.30 6.3
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/ 8 9:47:11.11 19.33 144.73 6.1
2010/ 3/ 9
2010/ 3/10
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/11 15: 6: 2.10 -34.46 -72.04 6.0 2010/ 3/11 5:30 6.5 DATE HIT
2010/ 3/12
2010/ 3/13
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/14 8: 8: 4.00 37.76 141.58 6.5
2010/ 3/15 11: 8:28.72 -35.78 -73.34 6.2 2010/ 3/15 17:30 6.9 DATE HIT
2010/ 3/16 2:21:57.94 -36.22 -73.26 6.7
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/17
2010/ 3/18
2010/ 3/19
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/20 14: 0:50.25 -3.38 152.22 6.6
2010/ 3/21
2010/ 3/22
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/23
2010/ 3/24
2010/ 3/25 5:29:24.82 13.82 120.07 6.0
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/26 14:52: 7.45 -27.96 -70.69 6.3
2010/ 3/27
2010/ 3/28 21:38:28.00 -35.39 -73.39 6.0
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 3/29 2010/ 3/29 6:30 7.0 DATE HIT
2010/ 3/30 16:54:46.72 13.67 92.83 6.7
2010/ 3/31
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 4/ 1
2010/ 4/ 2 22:58: 9.51 -36.18 -72.67 6.0
2010/ 4/ 3
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 4/ 4 22:40:41.00 32.13 -115.30 7.2
2010/ 4/ 5 10: 5:42.52 -.17 125.01 6.2
2010/ 4/ 6 22:15: 2.16 2.36 97.13 7.7
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 4/ 7
2010/ 4/ 8
2010/ 4/ 9
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 4/10 16:54:24.60 -20.11 -176.23 6.0
2010/ 4/11 22: 8:11.59 37.02 -3.52 6.3 2010/ 4/11 7:30 6.5 DATE HIT
2010/ 4/12
--------------------------------------------------------------
2010/ 4/13 23:49:37.95 33.27 96.63 6.9

--------------------------------------------------------------
39 quakes 7 date hits out of 9 predictions.
35 3-day windows, 28 contain quakes. Odds of a hit are 80%
7 date hits out of 9 predictions
80% of 9 is 7 expected hits.

Results are pure chance.

Roger




Follow Ups:
     ● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter  08:03:06 - 5/12/2010  (77017)  (1)
        ● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave  10:24:06 - 5/12/2010  (77018)  (1)
           ● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter  11:13:09 - 5/12/2010  (77019)  (1)
              ● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter  11:21:27 - 5/12/2010  (77020)  (1)
                 ● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave  23:58:10 - 5/12/2010  (77023)  (2)
                    ● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter  07:29:52 - 5/13/2010  (77027)  (1)
                       ● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave  00:05:05 - 5/14/2010  (77030)  (1)
                          ● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter  07:04:36 - 5/14/2010  (77035)  (0)
                    ● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave  02:02:04 - 5/13/2010  (77024)  (1)
                       ● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter  07:32:13 - 5/13/2010  (77028)  (1)
                          ● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave  00:18:06 - 5/14/2010  (77031)  (1)
                             ● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter  07:12:56 - 5/14/2010  (77037)  (0)