Posted by Amit Dave on May 12, 2010 at 03:27:59:
Roge Here is your own evaluation for this year mailed to me. It says more than one date hits.Where as here you say only one date hit. Can you please explain the difference? Which one is corect? regards Amit Amit Here's how you are doing so far based on the NEIC catalog (which is not up to date) I lookes at all 6+ quakes and scored for a 3 day window Centered on the predicted date. Mag was ignored or otherwise You would have no hits QUAKE PREDICTION DATE TIME LAT. LON. MAG DATE TIME MAG 2010/ 1/ 1 2010/ 1/ 2 8:45:32.05 12.42 141.96 6.1 2010/ 1/ 3 22:36:27.96 -8.80 157.35 7.1 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/ 4 2010/ 1/ 5 13:11:42.82 -9.05 157.89 6.0 2010/ 1/ 6 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/ 7 2010/ 1/ 8 2010/ 1/ 9 5:51:30.47 -9.13 157.63 6.2 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/10 2010/ 1/11 2010/ 1/12 22: 0:41.49 18.39 -72.78 6.0 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/13 2010/ 1/14 2010/ 1/15 2010/ 1/15 8:30 6.7 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/16 2010/ 1/17 12: 0: 1.08 -57.66 -65.88 6.3 2010/ 1/18 2010/ 1/18 7:30 6.6 DATE HIT -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/19 2010/ 1/20 2010/ 1/21 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/22 2010/ 1/23 2010/ 1/24 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/25 2010/ 1/26 2010/ 1/27 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/28 2010/ 1/29 2010/ 1/30 2010/ 1/30 8: 0 6.5 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 1/31 2010/ 2/ 1 22:28:16.92 -6.11 154.46 6.2 2010/ 2/ 2 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/ 3 2010/ 2/ 4 2010/ 2/ 5 6:59: 5.64 -47.90 99.66 6.2 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/ 6 4:44:58.40 46.84 152.73 6.0 2010/ 2/ 7 6:10: .23 23.49 123.61 6.3 2010/ 2/ 8 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/ 9 1: 3:44.44 -15.05 -173.49 6.0 2010/ 2/10 2010/ 2/11 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/12 2010/ 2/13 2:34:28.85 -21.90 -174.78 6.1 2010/ 2/14 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/15 21:51:47.84 -7.22 128.76 6.2 2010/ 2/15 2: 0 6.6 DATE HIT 2010/ 2/16 2010/ 2/17 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/18 1:13:19.51 42.59 130.70 6.9 2010/ 2/19 2010/ 2/20 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/21 2010/ 2/22 7: 0:52.91 -23.64 -176.04 6.0 2010/ 2/23 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/24 2010/ 2/25 2010/ 2/26 20:31:26.54 25.93 128.43 7.0 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 2/27 19: 0: 6.86 -33.42 -71.83 6.3 2010/ 2/28 11:25:35.92 -34.90 -71.62 6.2 2010/ 2/28 13:30 6.8 DATE HIT 2010/ 3/ 1 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/ 2 2010/ 3/ 3 17:44:25.04 -36.61 -73.36 6.1 2010/ 3/ 4 22:39:26.56 -22.21 -68.30 6.4 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/ 5 16: 6:58.81 -3.77 100.96 6.8 2010/ 3/ 6 2010/ 3/ 7 7: 5:23.29 -16.24 -115.30 6.3 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/ 8 9:47:11.11 19.33 144.73 6.1 2010/ 3/ 9 2010/ 3/10 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/11 15: 6: 2.10 -34.46 -72.04 6.0 2010/ 3/11 5:30 6.5 DATE HIT 2010/ 3/12 2010/ 3/13 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/14 8: 8: 4.00 37.76 141.58 6.5 2010/ 3/15 11: 8:28.72 -35.78 -73.34 6.2 2010/ 3/15 17:30 6.9 DATE HIT 2010/ 3/16 2:21:57.94 -36.22 -73.26 6.7 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/17 2010/ 3/18 2010/ 3/19 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/20 14: 0:50.25 -3.38 152.22 6.6 2010/ 3/21 2010/ 3/22 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/23 2010/ 3/24 2010/ 3/25 5:29:24.82 13.82 120.07 6.0 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/26 14:52: 7.45 -27.96 -70.69 6.3 2010/ 3/27 2010/ 3/28 21:38:28.00 -35.39 -73.39 6.0 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 3/29 2010/ 3/29 6:30 7.0 DATE HIT 2010/ 3/30 16:54:46.72 13.67 92.83 6.7 2010/ 3/31 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 4/ 1 2010/ 4/ 2 22:58: 9.51 -36.18 -72.67 6.0 2010/ 4/ 3 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 4/ 4 22:40:41.00 32.13 -115.30 7.2 2010/ 4/ 5 10: 5:42.52 -.17 125.01 6.2 2010/ 4/ 6 22:15: 2.16 2.36 97.13 7.7 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 4/ 7 2010/ 4/ 8 2010/ 4/ 9 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 4/10 16:54:24.60 -20.11 -176.23 6.0 2010/ 4/11 22: 8:11.59 37.02 -3.52 6.3 2010/ 4/11 7:30 6.5 DATE HIT 2010/ 4/12 -------------------------------------------------------------- 2010/ 4/13 23:49:37.95 33.27 96.63 6.9 -------------------------------------------------------------- 39 quakes 7 date hits out of 9 predictions. 35 3-day windows, 28 contain quakes. Odds of a hit are 80% 7 date hits out of 9 predictions 80% of 9 is 7 expected hits. Results are pure chance. Roger
Follow Ups:
● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter 08:03:06 - 5/12/2010 (77017) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave 10:24:06 - 5/12/2010 (77018) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter 11:13:09 - 5/12/2010 (77019) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter 11:21:27 - 5/12/2010 (77020) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave 23:58:10 - 5/12/2010 (77023) (2)
● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter 07:29:52 - 5/13/2010 (77027) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave 00:05:05 - 5/14/2010 (77030) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter 07:04:36 - 5/14/2010 (77035) (0)
● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave 02:02:04 - 5/13/2010 (77024) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter 07:32:13 - 5/13/2010 (77028) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Amit Dave 00:18:06 - 5/14/2010 (77031) (1)
● Re: big aftershocks - Roger Hunter 07:12:56 - 5/14/2010 (77037) (0)
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