More on Shou
Posted by Roger Hunter on June 07, 2007 at 17:01:56:

Checking the significance of the predictions on Dr Shou's website
turned up some interesting information. I extracted all the information
from his Past Predictions pages which are supposed to correspond to
the USGS registered predictions. The 30 cases with lat/lon boundaries
were examined for significance and found to be incredibly high. Much
higher than his previously published article. A comparison between the
two lists turned up only 10 cases that matched. Those are listed below
with the first line of each pair being the published version and the
second line being the website version. In nearly every case the second
prediction had tighter limits for one or more of the parameters. This
gives a lower probability resulting in a higher score for a hit and
a lesser penalty for a miss.


# Start Finish Lat range Lon. range Mag range
23, 1998,01,05, 1998,02,18, 25, 41, 53, 105, 6.0, 9.9
26, 1998,01,05, 1998,02,04, 30, 37, 58, 95, 6.0, 9.9


27, 1998,07,24, 1998,09,02, 34, 39, -119, -117, 4.0, 5.5
30, 1998,07,24, 1998,08,12, 35, 38.5, -119, -117, 4.3, 5.2


29, 1998,12,28, 1999,02,13, 33, 39, -120, -116, 4.2, 5.4
32, 1998,12,28, 1999,01,30, 35, 37.7, -119, -116, 4.6, 5.1


30, 1999,02,22, 1999,04,08, 20, 38, 50, 100, 5.5, 9.9
33, 1999,02,22, 1999,04,01, 28, 38, 50, 100, 6.0, 9.9


31, 1999,04,02, 1999,05,20, 24, 34, -118, -108, 4.0, 5.2
34, 1999,04,02, 1999,04,26, 30, 33.0, -117, -112.0, 4.0, 5.2


33, 1999,05,05, 1999,06,21, 27, 33, -117, -113, 4.0, 9.9
36, 1999,05,05, 1999,06,05, 27, 33, -115.5, -114.5, 4.8, 9.9


35, 1999,06,09, 1999,07,25, 35, 39, -120, -116, 4.0, 5.3
38, 1999,06,09, 1999,07,25, 35, 39, -119, -118, 4.4, 4.9


36, 1999,07,26, 1999,09,10, 36, 42, 113, 117, 5.0, 9.9
39, 1999,07,26, 1999,08,30, 36, 42, 113, 117, 5.0, 9.9


37, 1999,10,28, 1999,12,14, 30, 33, -117, -118, 5.0, 9.9
41, 1999,10,25, 1999,11,14, 30, 40, 51, 58, 6.5, 9.9


39, 2000,02,28, 2000,04,13, 31, 35, -116.5, -115, 4.5, 9.9
44, 2000,02,28, 2000,04,15, 32, 33.2, -115.5, -115.1, 4.5, 9.9


42, 2001,08,06, 2001,10,21, 21, 25, 68, 73, 6.0, 9.9
59, 2001,08,06, 2001,10,02, 23.1, 23.7, 70, 70.6, 6.0, 9.9


43, 2001,08,08, 2001,10,02, 32, 33.5 ,-117, -115.2, 4.0, 9.9
60, 2001,08,08, 2001,10,02, 31.5, 33.8, -117, -115, 4.5, 9.9


Clearly, the website versions have been "improved" after the fact.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: More on Shou - Roger Hunter  21:18:30 - 6/8/2007  (71979)  (1)
        ● Another problem... - Glen  22:32:15 - 6/8/2007  (71981)  (1)
           ● clouds after earthquakes - heartland chris  07:39:57 - 6/9/2007  (71982)  (1)
              ● Re: clouds after earthquakes - Glen  17:35:18 - 6/9/2007  (71983)  (2)
                 ● Re: clouds after earthquakes - Cathryn  22:58:46 - 6/9/2007  (71985)  (1)
                    ● Lenticulars over Anza last Tuesday - Glen  23:27:29 - 6/9/2007  (71986)  (2)
                       ● Re: Lenticulars over Anza last Tuesday - Skywise  18:49:55 - 6/10/2007  (71991)  (0)
                       ● Re: Lenticulars over Anza last Tuesday - Cathryn  14:31:43 - 6/10/2007  (71990)  (0)
                 ● Re: clouds after earthquakes - Roger Hunter  18:45:15 - 6/9/2007  (71984)  (2)
                    ● That's OK, but... - Glen  13:12:51 - 6/10/2007  (71989)  (0)
                    ● Re: clouds after earthquakes - Barbara  08:08:09 - 6/10/2007  (71987)  (1)
                       ● Re: clouds after earthquakes - Roger Hunter  09:56:09 - 6/10/2007  (71988)  (0)