# Prob h/m Score Exp. Var Cum.ScoreCumExp CumVar
1 13.8 1 1.98 .15 .54 1.98 .15 .54
2 27.1 1 1.31 .12 .52 3.29 .27 1.06
3 73.1 1 .31 -.12 .52 3.60 .14 1.58
4 79.6 1 .23 -.14 .54 3.83 .00 2.12
5 20.0 0 -.22 .14 .54 3.60 .15 2.65
6 99.9 1 .00 -.01 .05 3.61 .14 2.70
7 48.1 1 .73 .01 .48 4.34 .15 3.18
8 100.0 1 .00 -.00 .00 4.34 .15 3.18
9 8.9 0 -.09 .13 .51 4.24 .28 3.69
10 27.1 0 -.32 .12 .52 3.93 .40 4.21
11 31.6 0 -.38 .10 .51 3.55 .51 4.72
12 28.5 0 -.34 .12 .52 3.21 .63 5.24
13 44.8 0 -.59 .03 .48 2.62 .66 5.72
14 48.0 1 .73 .01 .48 3.35 .67 6.20
15 98.1 1 .02 -.06 .30 3.37 .61 6.49
16 .0 0 -.00 .00 .00 3.37 .61 6.49
17 79.4 1 .23 -.14 .54 3.60 .47 7.03
18 93.7 1 .07 -.11 .47 3.67 .36 7.50
19 63.4 1 .46 -.08 .50 4.12 .28 8.00
20 35.6 0 -.44 .08 .50 3.68 .36 8.50
21 50.2 1 .69 -.00 .48 4.37 .36 8.98
22 34.1 0 -.42 .09 .50 3.96 .46 9.48
23 44.1 1 .82 .04 .48 4.77 .49 9.96
24 79.5 1 .23 -.14 .54 5.00 .35 10.50
25 31.7 0 -.38 .10 .51 4.62 .45 11.00
26 99.3 1 .01 -.03 .17 4.63 .42 11.18
27 54.9 1 .60 -.03 .48 5.23 .39 11.66
28 72.3 1 .32 -.12 .52 5.55 .27 12.18
29 69.9 1 .36 -.11 .51 5.91 .16 12.69
30 61.8 1 .48 -.07 .49 6.39 .09 13.18
31 77.6 1 .25 -.14 .53 6.65 -.05 13.71
32 83.1 1 .19 -.15 .54 6.83 -.19 14.25
33 40.0 1 .92 .06 .49 7.75 -.13 14.74
34 79.5 1 .23 -.14 .54 7.98 -.28 15.28
35 61.9 1 .48 -.07 .49 8.46 -.35 15.77
36 4.7 0 -.05 .10 .43 8.41 -.25 16.20
37 15.7 0 -.17 .15 .54 8.24 -.10 16.74
38 .0 0 -.00 .00 .00 8.24 -.10 16.74
39 21.6 0 -.24 .14 .53 7.99 .04 17.28
40 32.2 1 1.13 .10 .51 9.13 .14 17.78
41 80.0 1 .22 -.14 .54 9.35 -.00 18.32
42 .0 0 -.00 .00 .00 9.35 -.00 18.32
43 8.4 0 -.09 .13 .51 9.26 .12 18.83
44 6.0 0 -.06 .11 .47 9.20 .24 19.29
45 6.8 1 2.69 .12 .48 11.89 .35 19.78
46 37.7 1 .98 .07 .49 12.86 .43 20.27
47 37.7 1 .98 .07 .49 13.84 .50 20.76
48 29.3 1 1.23 .11 .51 15.07 .61 21.27
49 71.7 1 .33 -.12 .52 15.40 .49 21.79
50 18.8 1 1.67 .15 .54 17.07 .64 22.33 Standard deviation is square root of 22.330
Standard deviation is 4.725
Normalized score is total score minus total expected divided by sd
( 17.072 - .639 )/ 4.725
Normalized score is 3.477
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These are the 16 locatable predictions as Dr Shou
published them.
# Prob h/m Score Exp Var CumSc CumExp CumVar
5 20.0 0 -.22 .14 .54 -.22 .14 .54
23 44.1 1 .82 .04 .48 .60 .18 1.02
27 54.9 1 .60 -.03 .48 1.20 .15 1.50
29 69.9 1 .36 -.11 .51 1.55 .04 2.01
30 61.8 1 .48 -.07 .49 2.03 -.03 2.51
31 77.6 1 .25 -.14 .53 2.29 -.17 3.04
33 40.0 1 .92 .06 .49 3.20 -.11 3.53
35 61.9 1 .48 -.07 .49 3.68 -.18 4.02
36 4.7 0 -.05 .10 .43 3.64 -.08 4.45
37 15.7 0 -.17 .15 .54 3.47 .06 4.99
39 21.6 0 -.24 .14 .53 3.22 .20 5.53
42 .0 0 -.00 .00 .00 3.22 .20 5.53
43 8.4 0 -.09 .13 .51 3.13 .33 6.03
45 6.8 1 2.69 .12 .48 5.82 .45 6.52
46 37.7 1 .98 .07 .49 6.80 .52 7.01
50 18.8 1 1.67 .15 .54 8.47 .67 7.55
Standard deviation is square root of 7.548
Standard deviation is 2.747
Normalized score is total score minus total expected divided by sd
( 8.469 - .667 )/ 2.747
Normalized score is 2.84 NOTE: While this is less significant
than the full 50 it is still beyound the 99% level
--------------------------------------------------------
These are the best 16 predictions from the table of
USGS registered predictions. They have been processed
with my program using the NEIC catalog as a database.
# Prob h/m Score Exp. Var. Com Sc Cum.Exp.Cum.Var.
5 25.7 0 -.30 .13 .52 -.30 .13 .52
23 44.6 1 .81 .03 .48 .51 .16 1.01
27 65.4 1 .42 -.09 .50 .94 .07 1.51
29 81.2 0 -1.67 -.15 .54 -.74 -.07 2.05
30 81.9 1 .20 -.15 .54 -.54 -.22 2.59
31 88.2 1 .13 -.14 .53 -.41 -.36 3.12
33 60.9 1 .50 -.07 .49 .08 -.43 3.61
35 70.0 1 .36 -.11 .51 .44 -.54 4.12
36 4.3 0 -.04 .09 .42 .40 -.44 4.54
37 .0 0 -.00 .00 .00 .40 -.44 4.54
39 22.2 0 -.25 .14 .53 .15 -.31 5.07
42 2.3 0 -.02 .06 .32 .12 -.24 5.40
43 39.0 0 -.49 .07 .49 -.37 -.18 5.89
45 30.8 1 1.18 .11 .51 .81 -.07 6.40
46 66.2 1 .41 -.09 .50 1.22 -.16 6.90
50 35.1 1 1.05 .09 .50 2.27 -.07 7.40
Standard deviation is square root of 7.395
Standard deviation is 2.719
Normalized score is total score minus total expected divided by sd
( 2.266 - (-.074) )/ 2.719
Normalized score is .861
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The point is that the answer depends heavily on the probability
as determined from the database. And the database influences
hits and misses as well.
Roger
