Thanks Roger. Yes, I had heard of Shou's predictions previously, but hoped that you would be able to provide a concise description/explanation without my, or other readers, having to go to his postings or website and figure it our ourselves. And I wasn't disappointed.

As to the analysis, then, do I read you correctly: You claim that Shou subjected his predictions to his own analysis, and concluded his predictions were statistically significant, but that your own analysis concluded that they were not significant? Can you point out how his statistical analysis was in error?

BTW - in a post on SGE yesterday "Susan" (Susan Hough - well-known USGS seismologist) provided an URL which appears to point to an internal source of communications between seismologists - apparently not specifically intended for the general public. Might prove an interesting source for getting the low-down skinny on what's going on. Cut the URL off after "Office/" or, if you like, after "Hough/".

MW
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