Morning Lowell:

I have a couple of comments/questions regard your post of the wednesday night.

I've been thinking qute a bit regarding the "public safety" issue & the "nobody except the chief of USGS can make a prediction legally" issue. I'm sure some predictors will want to make their predictions public to foster discussion and comment on boards such as this one, and some predictors will want to keep their predictions private until they give permission for them to be released if at all. I would like to be able to accomodate both groups. I think the solution might be to:

A. Asked the predictor if they want their prediction to be public or private and
B. If a predictor request public disclosure, the EPR would only make the prediction public once the time window had closed.

This would appear the eliminate the liability issue for the EPR with regards to the law and public safety.

The questions I have for you regarding this area are:

1. On your system, if a predictor makes a series of predicitons, and later requests public disclosure, are they required to release all predictions rather than picking and choosing?
2. Do you happen to know what part of the Federal code contains this law?
3. Would the approach above eliminate any fears, in your opinion, with regards to public safety?

I've also done some thinking regarding archivability. Don't have an answer to that one yet. I'm 39 yrs old so I would hope to be around for a while, but who knows ....

With regards to ease: I think the web form/site we are working on will address that.

With regards to confidentiality: I think a reputation will need to be built, and the only way for that to happen is over time.

With regards to predictions getting "lost in the shuffle": When a prediction is made with the form, my intention is for the form to automatically send a confirmation to the predictor, so I don't think any will ever get lost.

With regards to Rogers old database of predictions: Roger? any comments? Remember what happened to them?

The question regarding the public right to know and the govs obligation to protect is a thorny issue. I think the idea about delayed release of predictions on the EPR would be a good middle ground. A prediction is no longer a prediction in the time window has closed, right? At the very least, the time of concern for public safety would end at the close of the prediction.

With regards to public predictions, they have been made here and on other boards. I assume that, even though they are in violation of the law, it is not enforced because public concern has not been raised, and just the general lack of confidence of public prediction. Would that be your take on that subject?

"Once we get into the mindset that something is impossible it becomes impossible because we are not willing to accept that it is otherwise, despite evidence to the contrary" ... Can I cite that on EPR? That's a great quote!

You mentioned that confidence level is used on your system. Could you describe how that parameter is applied to your analysis? While on the subject, how is analysis done (in general)? Roger may have more information on that subject ....

Thanks again for all your insight!

Michael