Re: Confidence
Posted by lowell on April 28, 2001 at 08:21:09:

Roger,
The problem of finding a successful predictor (at least long-term) has not yet
arisen. If such a person shows up, we will forward (at his/her) agreement our
analysis of the forecasts to a group of academic geophysicists and seismologists
who have shown an interest (in print, talks or via personal communication) in pursuing
earthquake prediction studies. Most of these would be interested in any prediction
schema which yields statistically significant results. The academic world is often
not as close-minded as it appears.

Since our mission as a data center is to maintain and archive databases, as long
as the data center is here, this data base should be available. All data bases are
backed up on CD-ROM and cassette tape and archived in a climate-controlled
building. Everything on my computer and on the other government computers
here is also backed up on a weekly basis. These back-ups have no expiration
date. Even so, I cannot guarantee that 5 years down the road a specific prediction
will be accessible. Even now, there is talk of dismantling the Data Center.
Archiving is always a thorny issue. Even if we could guarantee permanent
archiving (which we cannot) we could not guarantee permanent accessibility.
A lot of government paper and records go into those Indiana Jones style warehouses
along with the lost Ark of the Covenant, never to be seen again (at least not in
the lifetime of a single human).


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Confidence - Roger Hunter  08:37:34 - 4/28/2001  (7186)  (1)
        ● Re: Confidence - Lowell  09:46:52 - 4/28/2001  (7187)  (1)
           ● Re: Confidence - Roger Hunter  09:58:41 - 4/28/2001  (7188)  (1)
              ● Re: Confidence - Lowell  10:35:55 - 4/28/2001  (7189)  (0)