A well-formulated prediction, Glen. Can't nitpick that one.

One thing that we, on this forum, and predictors generally, haven't dealt with is what magnitude determination is to be used. As is well-known, rapid automated systems provide almost instantaneous information. This information is, particularly for moderate and large quakes, subject to modification as it is reviewed by humans, and more data are input. I would think we would want to always eschew the first, automated magnitude measurement, and insist on a more reliable one. I'm not that familiar with the catalogs, nor the agencies providing them, but, for borderline cases in the moderate magnitude range, we could perhaps request the most recent result in a 72-hour period, by a recognized U.S. agency such as USGS or NEIC. For quakes larger than M7.0, perhaps a two-week period should be used. I'm just throwing these numbers out for discussion, but I think we should probably have a policy in advance of need, so as to minimize mutual recriminations and hard feelings. Borderline quakes will occur.

Anyone care to formulate a policy? Roger?

Michael Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA