zero chance of M9 in same place
Posted by chris in suburbia on December 23, 2005 at 10:39:08:

Please see my 2 posts on the earlier thread where I explain that there is a zero chance (rounded to the nearest integer) that the same part of the subduction zone will produce another M9 quake in the next month. The part that has not failed is south of the equator, and it would not be surpising to have a Great quake (>M8) in the next few years or decades, it is not more likely in the next week than any other 1 week period. I posted that strike-slip earthquakes are possible north of the equator anytime, but that they would probably be a little smaller than M8 at most, and there is no reason to expect these in the next week. The only reason I have to think there is anything to Shan's prediction method is that he was close on a prediction for the March 2005 M8.7...after which he missed 3 times on predictions for Great quakes.

It does not hurt to be educated and prepared on what to do if you, for example, live on the coast and feel the ground shaking for over 1 minute....get away from the coast and low land...fast

Sorry, Shan, but Canie said there is someone who lives in that area(?) who is watching this page, and I feel obliged to make such a caution.
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: zero chance of M9 in same place - Don in Hollister  13:56:33 - 12/23/2005  (32352)  (1)
        ● Not So Zero - Petra  14:40:07 - 12/23/2005  (32354)  (2)
           ● Re: Not So Zero - Cathryn  21:19:04 - 12/23/2005  (32363)  (1)
              ● Re: Not So Zero - Petra  22:02:12 - 12/23/2005  (32365)  (1)
                 ● Thanks, Petra (NT) - Cathryn  18:32:57 - 12/25/2005  (32466)  (0)
           ● Re: Not So Zero - chris in suburbia  15:05:25 - 12/23/2005  (32355)  (3)
              ● Re: Not So Zero - Cathryn  21:21:39 - 12/23/2005  (32364)  (1)
                 ● M8 - chris in suburbia  09:30:22 - 12/24/2005  (32396)  (0)
              ● Re: Not So Zero - Petra  17:17:34 - 12/23/2005  (32357)  (0)
              ● Re: Not So Zero - Don in Hollister  15:46:24 - 12/23/2005  (32356)  (0)