Hi Dr. Don. I’m going to play the Devils Advocate here. How do we know this quake wouldn’t have occurred anyway? Could this quake have occurred anyway, but a couple of days later?

The data that I was using a couple of years ago gave me the location and time of the quake. However it never gave me the magnitude. That was always a guessing game.

Just a little over 2 years ago Canie and I teamed up for a forecast using something she remember seeing posted here in the past. I took that and combined with the data that I was using at the time. Here are the results of that experiment.

Hi All. I thought this might be a good time to show what team work can do. Canie and I teamed up to get this one. The results was an M>7.0 quake near the Solomon Islands on 12/23/2001. The magnitude was correct, the quake occurred inside the 60Km radius I used and was in the window I used. Take Care…Don in creepy town

She provided the magnitude as well as the following information.

“I was just looking at solar data and noticed the electron flux has been bottomed for a while now - one of our previous posters used to watch this bit of solar info - I'm not sure I'm doing him justice but when its been bottomed out as it has over a number of days he saw that as a warning for a large (6.5+, 7+) quake being due but no location information.”

“I'm not sure if he waited until it rose again to start the alert or not.... I guess I'll have to check the archives and see if I can find out.”

“I guess we'll see how the next couple of days pans out? Any ideas on a location?”

Canie

Hi Canie. There are four possible locations. Fiji Islands, Kermadec Islands, Solomon Islands and New Britain.

If a quake of the size you mentioned were to occur it would occur between 12/17/2001 and 12/23/2001.

For the Fiji Islands it would be at 33.8S/179.0W

For the Kermadec Islands it would be at 32.7S/178.2W

For the Solomon Islands it would be at 9.9S/159.1E

For New Britain it would be at 6.6S/151.7E

It’s not likely that all of these areas will have a quake of the magnitude you stated, but there is a good chance that at least one of them could. Anyway here is a good chance to combine two different types of data to see if this could result in an accurate forecast. Take Care…Don in creepy town

Hi Canie. By the way the distance between the areas I gave for the Solomon Island quake and the actual epicenter of the quake is 44.5268Km. Not bad, not bad at all for the combining of two different data’s. Hope you post again when you see the same thing. Take Care…Don in creepy town

As you can see the electron flux was low. I have forgotten how low it was and for how long, but there does appear to be connection there. The problem however is locating the areas that will be affected if affected at all each and every time there is low electron flux.

Canie should be proud of this, as it was her who provided the magnitude. This was something I was never able to do when it came to major quakes. Take Care…Don in creepy town