In the previous post in this series I proposed that because there do not appear to be any strong special interest groups anywhere which can move the science of forecasting earthquakes forward as quickly as it should be moving it largely rests in a type of limbo state where somewhat random forces are at times moving it forwards, backwards, sideways, or whatever.

The "FEAR FACTOR" is one of those random forces which are holding it back.

These are personal opinions.

If you generate 9 forecasts and they are fairly good and perhaps save some lives then you might be regarded as something of a hero or heroine. But if you then generate a 10th one which is not accurate and a city is unnecessarily evacuated, you might get into so much trouble that you would regret ever having made any forecasts at all, even though the first 9 did save some lives.

Unfortunately the real world situation is not even that good as far as I can tell. I am not aware of any forecasters who can claim a 90% success rate, or a 50% success rate, or even a 20% success rate for major destructive earthquakes occurring around the world. My own forecasts are not sufficiently detailed that they always specify exactly when and where a destructive earthquake is going to occur.

Something which I believe has resulted from this situation where there are few rewards and many dangers associated with forecasting earthquakes is what might be called the "Fear Factor."

Many scientists appear to me to have decided to take the "safe" approach. And that is to make a blanket statement that "Earthquakes cannot be predicted." And at the same time they are quietly trying to move the science of earthquake forecasting ahead. Or they are at least hoping that this will happen.

At some point effective earthquake forecasting procedures will be developed. And then the same scientists will begin saying, "We never said that it would never, ever be possible to develop effective earthquake forecasting programs. You must have misunderstood us."

I strongly disagree with that "Fear Factor" based approach to developing effective earthquake forecasting programs. The right way to develop them in my opinion is to learn how to discuss forecasts in public in such a manner that people understand what is being said without becoming unnecessarily alarmed.

I think that most scientists would probably agree with me that in theory this would a good way to approach the matter. Unfortunately, in order for that to happen there probably has to be some type of special interest group which has the sense of direction, desire, and the resources needed to get everyone involved with this both organized and moving in the same direction. And as my previous post proposed, at this time it does not appear to me that any such group exists anywhere. As a partial consequence of that the somewhat random "Fear Factor" is I feel having a significant impact on the science of earthquake forecasting just it is undoubtedly affecting some other important areas of science.

Under the circumstances I believe that one of the few means that we have to deal with the slowing effect of that "Fear Factor" is to try to keep making some progress with this science while at the same time discussing that progress as openly as possible. And I feel that this particular bulletin board is helpful in that regard as it is somewhat protected. The Internet Newsgroups are a little like "Dodge City" back in the cowboy days. You post your note; you take your chances!