This report in this series will talk about the three major earthquake forecasting institutions or resources.

These are personal opinions.

POPULAR EARTHQUAKE MYTHS

What people most often hear about earthquake forecasting might be the statements:

"Earthquakes can't be predicted."

and,

"The only earthquake prediction worth paying any attention to is one which includes accurate information regarding the time, location, and the magnitude of the expected earthquake."

As these three postings have proposed, both of those statements are not only badly out of touch with reality but are actually quite dangerous. They can get researchers and the general public moving in the wrong direction or encourage them not to move at all.

Here are several statements which I believe are accurate. And since I have been running my own earthquake forecasting program for some time I believe that I can make these statements as something of an authority on this.

An effective earthquake forecasting program needs the following:

1. Precursor Data - You need to have reasonably high quality and decipherable precursor data and/or a good computer model which enables you to generate forecasts based on patterns associated with past earthquakes etc. Having both available for comparison purposes would probably be the best thing. Any accurate data is worthwhile. It is not necessary for each individual data source to provide all three types of information: time, location, and magnitude.

2. Data Evaluation - There has to be a group somewhere which can collect and evaluate the precursor data etc., come to reasonable conclusions regarding possible approaching earthquakes, and then effectively distribute the information to the appropriate parties.

3. Evacuation Procedure - The most effective way to save lives when an earthquake is about to occur is to get people out of dangerous structures and into the open, or into safe temporary structures, or moved to some other location.

The only locations on Earth at this time where all three of those institutions, resources, or capabilities exist that I know of are in certain parts of the People's Republic of China. Greece might be next though I would probably regard them as a distant second. From what I can tell Japan is lacking in resources 1 and 2.

What about the United States?

Evacuation Procedure - In theory existing agencies such as FEMA and some state emergency services offices might be able to organize an evacuation procedure given enough time. But as far as I am aware this is something which has never been tested. So they would probably have to "play it by ear" as the saying goes.

There are no such procedures like that in place where I myself live as far as I am aware. Earthquakes are not a major problem here. And if board visitors living near active fault zones would like to comment on their own state's or city's ability to get such an evacuation organized and moving then please join in.

Precursor Data - It does not appear to me that we are completely lacking in available precursor data here in the U.S. Quite a few groups and individuals are collecting them. And data are also undoubtedly available from private researchers, groups, and government agencies in other countries. The main resource problem that I believe we have is with data collection, evaluation, and circulation.

Data Evaluation - As I proposed in the other notes in this series, there are no organized groups which I am aware of here in the U.S. which are interested in collecting precursor data etc. from different sources, evaluating them, and then distributing them to the appropriate parties. If I myself suspect that a significant earthquake might be about to occur here in the U.S. or that a really destructive one might be about to occur in another country I have to contact other forecasters across the U.S. and around the world on my own and discuss the matter with them.

As I earlier proposed it is as if it is "every man, woman, and child for himself or herself" when it comes to collecting, evaluating, and circulating earthquake forecast data. It is like having a baseball team which has no coaches or managers. Players are hired directly by the owners. And they are then expected to be individually responsible for selecting a place for themselves in the batting order lineup etc. Is it any wonder when the team owners then complain, "Why aren't we able to win any games (or predict any earthquakes)?" The answer is simple: "There is no one (with the necessary good sense of direction) in charge." And for the following reason among others this situation is not likely to change any time soon.

ALL OF THE AVAILABLE BASKETS ARE LABELED: "CAMPAIGN CASH"

From what I can see, the people who are supposed to be in charge have their attention 100% fixed on controlling the enormous wealth and political power which the U.S. and its various states and cities represent. Important projects such as keeping cities from disappearing when an earthquake occurs are often left largely to fend for themselves.

For example,

California recently held a recall election which according to one report I saw cost 58 million U.S. dollars. I suspect that if you took into account all of the time and energy, and campaign contributions etc. that went into it the total bill might have been something like 100 million dollars. And people seemed to be more than willing to pay whatever it took to have the recall.

What do you think might have happened if people in California had instead said, "Let's wait until the next regular election." And they then took that 100 million dollars and used it to provide funding for an independent organization which had the goal of constantly collecting and circulating information regarding the potential of different earthquake forecasting procedures being developed by private researchers, universities, and government agencies around the world, and the goal of collecting, evaluating, and circulating earthquake forecast information?

Here is just one example of an international forecasting program which they might have easily established:

A Demonstration Earthquake Prediction Program
http://home.netcom.com/~edgrsprj/124.html

Gaining or retaining control of our nation's available wealth and political power apparently is!