I think Don's efforts in prediction and forecasting over all this time are noteworthy and commendable (regardless of any differing opinions for any particular case(s) ).

Also,I think the points made by Chris and Roger are also to the point. A probability calc. should probably be done for the occurence of M5.2 (now a M4.9 ?) in the greater SF bay region to see what the odds were /are for historical probability (as just one point estimate). Of course, the window remains open and so the other foot may fall.... Better to wait until after the 18th to see if Vacaville comes in huh?

And so it seems that the "mystery data" that Don was using will remain a mystery (or proprietary anyway). OR will it ? Guess time will tell.

I suppose two reasons to keep the "basis data" a mystery is to either commercialize it and profit from it in some way or to achieve a publishing goal (for recognition purposes).

In this information age though, you have to wonder just how long you can keep a lid on something before it becomes largely known.

I guess time will tell...though we can all guess that the clock is ticking countdown timer fashion it seems.... It seems also that once a thought is injected into the global stream of consciousness (and has value) it has a way of re-appearing in numerous places. Many inventions arise at the same time in different places...much to the chagrine of the inventors upon each other's existence....

It appears that the "basis data" is missing magnitude predictions (some of the time anyway). Wonder when that will change too ?

Just my $.02 worth