.02

Here's a first try at evaluating Don's advisory.

The predictions are Don's, same for a 5.2 or larger at 200km and same for
a 4.9 or larger at 200 km.

Remember that probability is based on a 5 year database for the world.

Roger

 1   Don
2002/4 /19 - 2002/5 /14 37.8   -122.6  6   9.9 65km Prob. 0%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
None found.

 2  Test 1
2002/4 /19 - 2002/5 /14 37.8   -122.6  5.2 9.9 200km Prob. 1.40%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18   127.9  4.22%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18    12.00
 Best dist 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18   127.89
 Best size 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18     5.18
 Best prob 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18     4.225%

 3  Test 2
2002/4 /19 - 2002/5 /14 37.8   -122.6  4.9 9.9 200km Prob. 4.22%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18   127.9  4.22%

The following quakes are perfect fits.
2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18

 Best date 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18    12.00
 Best dist 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18   127.89
 Best size 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18     5.18
 Best prob 2002/05/14 05:00:29.49  36.9672 -121.5998 5.18     4.225%