.02;

Here you are according to the parameters requested.

 1   .02 
2002/4 /19 - 2002/5 /18 38.985 36.515 -121.185 -123.585 4.9 9.9 Prob. 4.91%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18   111.3  4.91%

The following quakes are perfect fits.
2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18

 Best date 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18    10.00
 Best dist 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18   111.28
 Best size 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18     5.18
 Best prob 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18     4.918%

 2    .02 
2002/4 /19 - 2002/5 /18 38.985 36.515 -121.185 -123.585 5.2 9.9 Prob. 1.63%

The following quakes match the prediction to some degree.
   DATE       TIME        LAT      LON     MAG DIST(km) PROB.
2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18   111.3  4.91%

There are no perfect fits for this prediction.

 Best date 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18    10.00
 Best dist 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18   111.28
 Best size 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18     5.18
 Best prob 2002/05/14 05:00:29.50  36.9668 -121.5995 5.18     4.918%

Bear in mind that the probability of the prediction is what counts,
not the probability of the best-fit quake unless it's a perfect fit.

Roger