Hi Don,

That's an interesting way to look at the situation, however, what I'm about to say, you may not agree with at all, but we all have our own points of view.

I think the weak link in the Rodgers Creek Fault lies in Rohnert Park and at some point I believe in the near future that's going to be the point that ruptures. When it goes, it may cause a sizeable amount of slip, or it could simply repeat what has happened before with quakes in the 5.5 range. Even quakes of that magnitude in this area would cause wide spread damage due to the aluvial plain in the basin area's from Santa Rosa to the Novato narrows. Studies have already shown that ground shaking intensities will be high.

Both the Rodgers Creek and the Pinole Fault have not had a serious quake since the 1600's. In the interim we've had the 1906 quake to the east, which may have lessened the stress on the RCF. But since 1906 there have only been quakes in the mid 5.0 range and its most likely the next future quake will repeat this pattern.

One thing one has to keep in mind is that since the twin quakes of October 1969 housing and commercial construction has probably increased by 200% at least. Therefore, the damage assessment after the next quake will more than likely be in the billions. Even the small Yountville quake caused 5 million in damage and the loss of one life. Yountville and that general area as you and I have seen is sparsely populated compared this this side of the RCF.

Now my memory is a little fuzzy on this one, but before that last 4.2 event in Bennett Valley to the east of the RCF, either Turkey or Taiwan had just had a 7+ quake in April of 1999. Therefore, with far field triggering along with a geomagnetic storm, chances are the 5.+ may arrive in the not so distant future.

Interesting to ponder at any rate....Petra