Hi Alan,

Yes, it has been awhile since we've gone thru the prediction evaluation process.

As to this latest prediction, my reasoning is that even though there is a good likely hood of the prediction getting a hit because of Hector, there is a chance that it could be elsewhere. I'd rather post based on that chance. An M5.5 in downtown LA could be pretty destructive. I say M5.5 because in the past I would give myself a 1.5 cushion on either side of my base magnitude. In this case I left the upper limit off and just used the 4.0+. I've been bit a few times with that upper limit.

In regards to the Jones/Reasonburgh aftershock formula. Am I correct in saying that its an algorithm showing the rate of decay for aftershocks following a large quake but that the aftershock sequences following a large quake may vary from that algorithm.

BTW, I see you've got a new email address.

Dennis