Yes, in the past we were both using the QED report that comes out a week later. The list that I got this 4.4 from was:

http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html

As to the Jones/Reasonberg formula, it appears that your basically doing the same thing in the sense that your looking at a point and time within that formula for the window of that prediction. I haven't seen the formula itself as I don't have access to the journal science, but I would assume that the probabilities change for each day we get further into the sequence. So it would seem that since I had a five day window, we'd have five different probabilities that would have to be combined together to get a single probability. Sound right?

Thanks,
Dennis