Petra,
In discussing this question with colleagues around the world, the impression is that
we in the U.S. are being our usual self-centered selves in this matter. Since we
do not have many destructive earthquakes, there is little interest in the U.S. in
predicting them. Many think it is better to put the money into designing better
buildings than into predicting earthquakes and that point of view has some merit.
For many hundreds of years people have been attempting to predict earthquakes
with many notable failures and few notable successes. The history of this does
not encourage many to have an optimistic viewpoint. So, a very conservative
organization such of the USGS is allowed to have it's way. And it's way is the
Parkfield project - a big money project whose returns on the investment thus
far are somewhat questionable. But that is the way government is - big money
always wins out over real advancement, so we take baby steps forward. But
enough baby steps does eventually get us where we are going - in geologic
time.
While many advanced countries such as Japan put huge sums of money into
earthquake prediction research because it is a major goal to achieve it, the
U.S. is not alone in its hesitancy to approach earthquake prediction as any
thing other than a pseudo-science. There are concerns about what to do if
it is known that an earthquake is about to happen. A colleague wrote the
other day saying he had a discussion with the top hazard manager in his
country, and the manager told him that he preferred not to have earthquakes
predicted because he would have no control over the process if they were.
The Chinese have learned from experience that government control over the
prediction process is the only way to control the masses, so they instituted
the "earthquake law" making it a crime to make a public prediction of an
earthquake.
So, yes there is hesitancy on the part of many geo-scientists to get involved
in this - not only would they be bucking the USGS and funding agencies, but
the end results of their labor look like obscurity - and for what - a lifetime of
failure?
There are some, however who, mostly in their spare time, work on various
theories and techniques. Many of these work outside the U.S. where censure
is not quite as bad, but if you look, you can find people quietly working on the
problem here too. They don't rush off to the newspapers every time they have
a success, but are building, slowly techniques which may stand the test
of time.