Hi Petra. You and I have a personal friend who for all purpose and intent life and career went down the tubes because he went public with his predictions. He was made an example of that many others do not want to follow.

However it is my feeling that either on the fringes of the geo-science, or maybe in the very middle of it there are those who are actively looking for ways to predict earthquakes. I just can’t believe there isn’t someone with the knowledge of quakes and how they function who isn’t looking for the key ingredient as to what triggers some of those quakes. How close they are is anyone’s guess.

The one key element to any successful prediction of an earthquake is the magnitude of that predicted quake. I have the feeling that is the one thing that is holding everything up. With out knowing what the stress is for a given area the magnitude of any given quake can only be guessed at and with lives and careers at stake a guess is not good enough. To many wrong guesses is sort of crying wolf. To many wrong ones and no one will listen to you when you have the correct one no matter how good the intentions were or are. How many times have you heard it said, “he had good intentions, but it failed.”

I hope that in my lifetime I can wake up one morning and see on the news much in the same form as a weather forecast. Something like. On 12/12/2001 there is a high degree of probability that a major quake will strike the Bay Area and this would be done about 3 days in advance of the quake. Maybe one day I will get to see that.

By the way. I still say “deep, dark and ugly” is the Great Valley fault. Take Care…Don in creepy town.