Re: Pavel's probability
Posted by Pavel Kalenda on August 31, 2012 at 23:21:23:

Dear Roger,

our first officialy predicted EQ was on November 24, 2008 (Kurily islands). We predicted it 26 days before the EQ and the time window was only 28 days long. The EQ was practically similar to the last one. The focus depth was deeper than 500 km and the movement on the plane started before the main event. The probability (in 2008) was only 9%. It is not meaningless that we saw (and predicted) two similar EQs from this area. Since 2008 we predicted 12 EQs, but the result is not only the prediction itself, but the confirmation of our model of stress accumulation and release. About this model of plate tectonics is the book not about these 12 EQ predictions.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Pavel's probability - Roger Hunter  07:14:26 - 9/1/2012  (80266)  (1)
        ● Re: Pavel's probability - Pavel Kalenda  09:08:14 - 9/1/2012  (80270)  (1)
           ● Re: Pavel's probability - Roger Hunter  09:25:57 - 9/1/2012  (80271)  (1)
              ● Re: Pavel's probability - Pavel Kalenda  14:27:00 - 9/1/2012  (80278)  (2)
                 ● Re: Pavel's probability - Island Chris  06:24:19 - 9/2/2012  (80281)  (0)
                 ● Re: Pavel's probability - Roger Hunter  15:09:39 - 9/1/2012  (80279)  (1)
                    ● Re: Pavel's paper review - Roger Hunter  08:25:59 - 9/2/2012  (80282)  (1)
                       ● Re: Pavel's paper review - Island Chris  10:24:54 - 9/2/2012  (80283)  (0)