Bullseye probability results
Posted by Roger Hunter on June 13, 2001 at 14:01:42:

I've added distance range checking to my probability program. Here is the result for San Jose CA, based on a NEIC search for mag 3.5 - 5.5 quakes from 1973 - 2000.

Distance__qks___hits__Prob.
000-222___838___464___36.3%
223-244____25____15____1.2%
245-266___728___253___19.8%
267-288___213___104____8.1%

"hits" here refers to the number of windows which contain quakes. "Prob" is hits/total windows (1279)

Other areas give quite different results.

Roger

Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Don in Hollister  21:00:53 - 6/13/2001  (7999)  (1)
        ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Roger Hunter  08:57:54 - 6/14/2001  (8009)  (2)
           ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Don in Hollister  09:46:12 - 6/14/2001  (8012)  (1)
              ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Roger Hunter  14:18:39 - 6/14/2001  (8014)  (1)
                 ● program ready - Roger Hunter  17:12:13 - 6/14/2001  (8020)  (1)
                    ● Re: program ready - Don in Hollister  17:38:55 - 6/14/2001  (8021)  (1)
                       ● Re: program ready - Roger Hunter  17:43:47 - 6/14/2001  (8022)  (0)
           ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Don in Hollister  09:12:43 - 6/14/2001  (8011)  (1)
              ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Roger Hunter  14:21:22 - 6/14/2001  (8016)  (0)
     ● Re: Bullseye probability results - michael  14:50:25 - 6/13/2001  (7982)  (1)
        ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Roger Hunter  15:05:37 - 6/13/2001  (7983)  (1)
           ● Re: Bullseye probability results - michael  15:32:30 - 6/13/2001  (7985)  (1)
              ● Re: Bullseye probability results - Roger Hunter  16:34:49 - 6/13/2001  (7988)  (1)
                 ● Re: Bullseye probability results - michael  18:35:10 - 6/13/2001  (7992)  (0)