EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING MYTHS – Posted by EQF on May 13, 2011

Hi Canie and all,

If you read the earthquake news reports on a regular basis you will find that the problem with someone forecasting an earthquake for Rome or some other location on the planet and getting people in the area upset happens perhaps once a month or so. This latest one was a little unusual in that the person who is supposed to have made the prediction has been dead for 30 years.

Perhaps the local authorities will dig up his grave, place his remains under arrest, and move them to a prison cell somewhere until he stops making a public nuisance of himself!

Actually, people in some organization that reportedly attempts to keep his legacy alive stated that they had never heard about any such prediction being made by him.

The reason that people evacuate cities etc. when they hear about such predictions even though government officials and “respected” members of the scientific community insist that “Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted,” is largely because based on their past experiences, they don’t believe either group!

Why should they?

Consider the following popular government and scientific community myths that were regarded as being the “Politically Correct Scientific Opinions” at one time or another:

“Modern nuclear plants have so many safeguards built into them that they are completely safe. There will never be another life threatening radiation leak from a nuclear power plant such as happened at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.”

“The technology for drilling for oil in deep water is now so advanced that it is completely safe to do that without the need for all of those expensive, excessive, and economy threatening safety regulations. So, ‘Drill Baby, Drill!’”

“The City Of New Orleans is completely protected from that approaching hurricane.”

“There is no credible scientific evidence that cigarette smoking causes cancer.”

“There are no health consequences associated with adding lead to gasoline.”

“The Earth is flat. And if you sail your ship far enough towards the horizon you will fall off the edge and into the abyss.”

And then finally there is my personal favorite from around the time when Roger was a youngster (humor intended).

“There is no need for alarm! Dinosaurs are all vegetarians.”

Two popular myths that informed scientists and disaster response workers likely believe should be added to that list are:

“Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted.”

“Only earthquake forecasts that have verifiable and accurate time window, latitude and longitude, depth, and magnitude information have any value at all.”

If you talk with disaster mitigation officials they will likely tell you that it can take them hours, days, or even weeks to get all of their equipment assembled etc. so that they can respond to a destructive earthquake. And if they could get any prior warning at all that a major earthquake could be on the way, then they could get that effort started and save some time. And they would not need to know what the exact location would be for the earthquake or its magnitude. They can just go to the airport and get on a plane going to the right location after the earthquake occurs.

Saved hours and even saved minutes for disaster response workers can mean save lives!

So that often quoted scientific statement about an earthquake forecast needing to have accurate time, location, and magnitude information is just another “Politically Correct Myth” that is intended largely to make life easier for lazy and irresponsible government officials and their Politically Correct Scientists.

What happens when someone circulates a forecast such as that one about the Rome earthquake is that the government officials and Politically Correct Scientists cart out that “Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted” myth and spread it around. The logic is that if you insist that it is fundamentally impossible to predict earthquakes then the latest forecast about Rome or whatever can automatically be dismissed.

And, that myth is more than a Politically Correct Statement. It can also be a type of threat!

The government officials or scientists repeating the myth are often attempting to warn the general public and other scientists that if they make any attempts to predict earthquakes, there will be some form of official retaliation against them such as their having their research grants cancelled. Or they could lose their jobs if they work for some government agency. Or they will at least be ridiculed by other people in the scientific community for claiming that earthquakes can be predicted. And they will be blamed for any problems that the forecast causes such as people unnecessarily evacuating parts of cities.

I can’t recall ever hearing about anyone dying or even being injured when people unnecessarily evacuated part of some city as the result of an inaccurate earthquake forecast. And if earthquake forecasting information is carefully circulated that is unlikely to happen anyway.

But, everyone knows about the tens and hundreds of thousands of people who have died in recent years when earthquakes in Indonesia, Haiti, and Japan went unpredicted!

When a forecast for Rome or wherever is circulated like that, instead of taking the easy way out and trotting out that Politically Correct Nyth that “Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted,” government officials and scientists should instead simply state what they know and do not know. In this case they could explain that the fault structure under Rome is such that a major earthquake is unlikely. And they could state that they feel that they have no way at present of checking on the accuracy of an earthquake forecast. So people should listen to forecasts at their own risk.

That way they are at least not threatening serious researchers by stating or implying,

“Don’t try to forecast earthquakes and risk creating problems for us, OR ELSE!”

Unfortunately, though scientists are good at adding numbers they are often not very good at dealing with controversial subjects such as earthquake forecasting. And when put under enough pressure by their government agency employers etc. to conform or face economic and peer pressure related consequences they often bend and go along with whatever Politically Correct Myth is in vogue at the time such as insisting that:

“Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted!!!”

Is it any wonder that so many people refuse to listen to those government officials and their Politically Correct Scientists?

History has been abundantly clear on this. Why should they?

These are personal opinions.