EQF;

> And then finally there is my personal favorite from around the time when Roger was a youngster (humor intended).

> “There is no need for alarm! Dinosaurs are all vegetarians.”

LOL! I'll add another one

"Velociraptors make good pets."

> Two popular myths that informed scientists and disaster response workers likely believe should be added to that list are:

> “Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted.”

That's no myth.

> “Only earthquake forecasts that have verifiable and accurate time window, latitude and longitude, depth, and magnitude information have any value at all.”

Neither is that. Unless you know when, where, and how big, there's nothing you can do.

> If you talk with disaster mitigation officials they will likely tell you that it can take them hours, days, or even weeks to get all of their equipment assembled etc. so that they can respond to a destructive earthquake. And if they could get any prior warning at all that a major earthquake could be on the way, then they could get that effort started and save some time. And they would not need to know what the exact location would be for the earthquake or its magnitude. They can just go to the airport and get on a plane going to the right location after the earthquake occurs.

Baloney. The key is accurate information WELL IN ADVANCE.

> Saved hours and even saved minutes for disaster response workers can mean save lives!

Disaster response, yes. Once the houses fall, hours oount.

> So that often quoted scientific statement about an earthquake forecast needing to have accurate time, location, and magnitude information is just another “Politically Correct Myth” that is intended largely to make life easier for lazy and irresponsible government officials and their Politically Correct Scientists.

Katrina victims would agree with that.

>What happens when someone circulates a forecast such as that one about the Rome earthquake is that the government officials and Politically Correct Scientists cart out that “Earthquakes Can’t Be Predicted” myth and spread it around. The logic is that if you insist that it is fundamentally impossible to predict earthquakes then the latest forecast about Rome or whatever can automatically be dismissed.

It can be ignored and it didn't happen. What was missing was an accurate track record for the predictor (who didn't predict it anyway).

> And, that myth is more than a Politically Correct Statement. It can also be a type of threat!

> The government officials or scientists repeating the myth are often attempting to warn the general public and other scientists that if they make any attempts to predict earthquakes, there will be some form of official retaliation against them such as their having their research grants cancelled. Or they could lose their jobs if they work for some government agency. Or they will at least be ridiculed by other people in the scientific community for claiming that earthquakes can be predicted. And they will be blamed for any problems that the forecast causes such as people unnecessarily evacuating parts of cities.

Rightly so. False alarms can be devastating economically and can lead to people ignoring a true alarm.

> I can’t recall ever hearing about anyone dying or even being injured when people unnecessarily evacuated part of some city as the result of an inaccurate earthquake forecast. And if earthquake forecasting information is carefully circulated that is unlikely to happen anyway.

First, issue no warnings until you have an accurate method.

Roger