UPDATE plus Note To Canie - Posted by EQF on March 2, 2011

http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/bbs.html

A Visitor Counter has been added to the bottom of the new bulletin board. It will provide board visitors with some idea of the number of people around the world are actually interested in seeing the science of earthquake forecasting move forward along the lines of the approach being used with that bulletin board.

Note To Canie – Some Good News

The number of arguments per square inch on the EarthWaves bulletin board is expected to be reduced now that the new bulletin board is running. This can be linked in part to an effect associated with the popular saying that,

“Sunlight is the best disinfectant!”

The primary reason that progress in the science of earthquake forecasting has been so slow for decades is the fact that this science has over say the past fifty years been totally controlled by a complex mixture of government and scientific community politics. And a significant part of that problem has been the following:

Governments around the world need to be the primary responders to information that an earthquake could be approaching. They are the only entities that can effectively get a city prepared for the earthquake. And a major part of that preparation could involve actually evacuating the city.

Unfortunately, no government that I know of has ever developed a good approach for letting the general public know that an earthquake could be approaching. The government of the People’s Republic of China has I understand from my reading developed at least some type of preparation program. But I don’t think that it is doing everything that is actually needed.

One of the consequences of that lack of a plan or preparing people for an earthquake is government hostility towards earthquake forecasts. In at least one country you can actually reportedly be put in jail for talking about a forecast in public. And before I myself started doing any significant forecast work I got an opinion from a civil rights attorney regarding earthquake forecasting. He stated that here in the U.S., earthquake forecasts are protected as Free Speech under the First Amendment to the Constitution.

It can be a little different matter if you want to sell earthquake forecasts. At least one state apparently requires that you have a license for doing that.

Because they have never developed any procedures for dealing with earthquake forecasts, governments around the world pressure their own scientists not to generate any forecasts that could cause problems for them. And this has resulted in a type of international Special Interest Group of scientists and government officials who are virtually totally opposed to the concept of earthquake forecasting.

One consequence of that is the fact that compared to the amount of damage that an earthquake could cause, very little research money is available from governments for doing earthquake forecasting research. Another consequence is that it can be extremely difficult or impossible to get a scientific paper discussing earthquake forecasting technology published in any of the top science journals.

One answer for that dilemma is as I said, to go back to that popular saying that,

“Sunlight is the best disinfectant.”

In other words, if there is a problem with some science that is not getting any attention because of the interference of some Special Interest Group, one of the best ways to deal with it is to get the problem out into the open and discuss it.

In the past this was difficult or impossible because any notes regarding earthquake forecasting posted to Newsgroups and most bulletin boards could be met with a tidal wave of highly vocal criticism, threats, and intimidation by members of that Special Interest Group. That type of “background noise” then frightens researchers away from efforts to solve the problem.

With the new bulletin board that type of interfering criticism etc. will not be possible on the board itself. So, there will a largely unopposed effort to discuss important information as it actually needs to be discussed. And there should be fewer heated arguments as the people in that Special Interest Group gradually become aware that it is becoming much more difficult for them to stop progress through the use of ridicule and public intimidation etc.

Eventually, for one reason or another, most governments will eventually decide to do the right thing and develop procedures for preparing people for approaching earthquakes. That Special Interest Group of scientists and government officials who have fought so hard over the years against the concept of earthquake forecasting will then quickly disappear into the history books.

These are personal opinions.